{ "dataset": "All-trade contractor opportunity per commercial building or residential home model", "version": "2026-10-06.1", "generated_by": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/build-all-trade-building-revenue-model.mjs", "status": "Publication model with explicit evidence types, result scope, and limitations. It is not an equal-confidence all-trade average.", "unit": "Trade-specific annual service or conditional project opportunity, USD. Read each result_kind and scope before comparison.", "principles": [ "Every trade has its own evidence model and explicitly named result kind. HVAC is never multiplied into another trade.", "HVAC and electrical use measured revenue and pass trade-classifier sensitivity checks. Small plumbing and fire cohorts are retained only as directional cross-checks and never anchor a public number.", "Plumbing publishes the conditional upgrade project as its primary result. Its CBECS-annualized capital opportunity is secondary portfolio-planning context, and recurring backflow service appears only when a verified device count is supplied. Fire publishes a recurring sprinkler ITM floor from maximum riser coverage and awarded unit prices. Roofing uses measured roof area, an executed maintenance schedule, and public replacement awards. Cleaning uses cleanable interior area. Elevator, refrigeration, commercial doors, landscaping, and solar use their same-trade physical denominators.", "Pest control uses resolved building area with a verified route-stop floor. Controls uses editable planned labor hours. General contracting and restoration publish conditional project context and are not annualized without incidence evidence. A separate one-time, one-project-per-building territory scenario requires the contractor's own project value, not multiplying the conditional public project references across inventory. It does not imply annual market revenue or event probability. Quantity defaults are visibly labelled planning scenarios, never measured building facts.", "A partial opportunity is labelled partial. Permit scope, recurring service, and total account revenue are never treated as interchangeable.", "Single-family residential project values use professionally performed HUD and Census American Housing Survey projects, except solar, which uses LBNL Tracking the Sun contractor-installed PV project records. These are owner project expenditures, not recurring service revenue or proof that one contractor received the entire project budget.", "Evidence type, basis, result scope, and known limits must be shown beside the result. Letter grades are not used because source authority and population representativeness are separate questions.", "Gross profit is a separately sourced, editable scenario. It uses a scope-matched trade proxy where available, Level recurring-service evidence for recurring scopes, and no default when the displayed amount is not contractor revenue.", "The 44.3% median job gross margin is never used to dollarize building or territory revenue because it is job-weighted rather than revenue-weighted." ], "sources": { "level_generic_validation": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/validate-generic-trade-building-revenue.mjs", "trade_cohort_sensitivity": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/audit-trade-cohort-sensitivity.mjs", "plumbing_capital_opportunity": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/build-plumbing-capital-opportunity.mjs", "public_service_awards": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/build-public-building-service-awards.mjs", "permit_shape": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/build-trade-permit-building-coefficients.mjs", "contractor_gross_margin_benchmark": "contractor", "ahs_residential_projects": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2023/AHS%202023%20National%20PUF%20v1.1%20CSV.zip", "lbnl_solar_projects": "https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/tracking_the_sun_2024_report.pdf" }, "residential_project_reference": { "source_scope": "Owner-occupied one-family attached and detached homes. Projects reported as not DIY, positive cost, primary work year 2021 through 2023.", "unit": "Conditional project expenditure and annualized project expenditure per eligible home, converted to 2025 dollars.", "method": "Join project.csv to household.csv by CONTROL. Keep BLD 02 or 03, TENURE 1, JOBDIY 2, and positive JOBCOST. Apply the household final weight. Convert the primary project year to 2025 CPI-U dollars. Divide three-year weighted expenditures by three and by the eligible-home weighted denominator for annual opportunity.", "limitation": "AHS measures the homeowner's project expenditure. It does not prove that one contractor received the full amount, and it excludes routine service, maintenance plans, renter-paid work, and projects in multifamily buildings.", "eligible_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 77297113, "all_single_family_homes": 100064065, "owner_occupied_share_of_single_family_homes": 0.7725, "validation_against_census_infographic": { "roofing_projects_millions": 8.3, "roofing_expenditures_billions": 93.5, "doors_windows_projects_millions": 7.9, "doors_windows_expenditures_billions": 45.2, "flooring_projects_millions": 10.9, "flooring_expenditures_billions": 51, "landscaping_projects_millions": 7, "landscaping_expenditures_billions": 26.6 }, "inflation": { "source": "BLS CPI-U annual average, series CUUR0000SA0", "source_url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0", "annual_average": { "2021": 270.97, "2022": 292.655, "2023": 304.702, "2025": 321.943 } }, "additional_scopes": { "security_low_voltage": { "label": "Security-system project", "jobtype_codes": [ 24 ], "unweighted_projects": 808, "weighted_projects": 2525409, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 400, "median": 800, "p75": 2200 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 1.09, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 18 }, "flooring_drywall": { "label": "Flooring, paneling, ceiling-tile, or drywall project", "jobtype_codes": [ 25 ], "unweighted_projects": 1955, "weighted_projects": 5941865, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 2400, "median": 4600, "p75": 8300 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 2.56, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 182 }, "doors_windows": { "label": "Doors or windows replacement or addition", "jobtype_codes": [ 18 ], "unweighted_projects": 1644, "weighted_projects": 4879189, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 1900, "median": 4800, "p75": 10700 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 2.1, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 176 } } }, "catch_all_sustainment_reference": { "publication_status": "all_building_total_context_office_only_trade_allocation", "evidence": { "label": "Federal facility-cost reference with a reviewed office task mapping", "basis": "DoD FY2026 facility sustainment task and cost tables.", "limitation": "This is a facility-wide cost requirement, not one contractor's measured revenue." }, "scope": "facility_sustainment_requirement", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "This is a long-run facility sustainment requirement, not measured annual revenue billed to one contractor. Total facility context is available for every calculator building segment. Trade allocation is reviewed only for six office trades.", "formula": "office gross floor area x DoD FAC 6100 sustainment cost x Level-derived trade share", "total_formula": "gross floor area x DoD FY2026 facility-category sustainment cost", "supported_segment": "office", "total_sustainment_by_segment": { "industrial": { "center_per_sqft": 6.02, "low_per_sqft": 6.02, "high_per_sqft": 6.02, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "2141", "label": "Vehicle Maintenance Shop", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 6.02 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "hospitality": { "center_per_sqft": 5.01, "low_per_sqft": 4.92, "high_per_sqft": 5.1, "center_method": "Median of the listed FY2026 Table 3 facility-category proxies.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7441", "label": "Transient Lodging", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 4.92 }, { "fac_code": "7442", "label": "Recreational Lodging", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.1 } ], "limit": "This is a proxy envelope across the listed facility categories, not a statistical confidence interval or a tenant-mix model." }, "education": { "center_per_sqft": 5.31, "low_per_sqft": 5.31, "high_per_sqft": 5.31, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7352", "label": "Dependent School", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.31 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "multifamily": { "center_per_sqft": 4.22, "low_per_sqft": 3.06, "high_per_sqft": 5.38, "center_method": "Median of the listed FY2026 Table 3 facility-category proxies.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7110", "label": "Family Housing Dwelling", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 3.06 }, { "fac_code": "7113", "label": "Family Housing High Rise Building", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.38 } ], "limit": "This is a proxy envelope across the listed facility categories, not a statistical confidence interval or a tenant-mix model." }, "government": { "center_per_sqft": 5.4, "low_per_sqft": 5.4, "high_per_sqft": 5.4, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "6100", "label": "General Administrative Building", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.4 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "worship": { "center_per_sqft": 5.58, "low_per_sqft": 5.58, "high_per_sqft": 5.58, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7361", "label": "Chapel Facility", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.58 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "mixed_use": { "center_per_sqft": 4.8, "low_per_sqft": 4.2, "high_per_sqft": 5.4, "center_method": "Median of the listed FY2026 Table 3 facility-category proxies.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7346", "label": "Exchange Sales Facility", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 4.2 }, { "fac_code": "6100", "label": "General Administrative Building", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.4 } ], "limit": "This is a proxy envelope across the listed facility categories, not a statistical confidence interval or a tenant-mix model." }, "office": { "center_per_sqft": 5.4, "low_per_sqft": 5.4, "high_per_sqft": 5.4, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "6100", "label": "General Administrative Building", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.4 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "healthcare": { "center_per_sqft": 11.28, "low_per_sqft": 10.1, "high_per_sqft": 12.45, "center_method": "Median of the listed FY2026 Table 3 facility-category proxies.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "5100", "label": "Hospital", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 10.1 }, { "fac_code": "5500", "label": "Dispensary And Clinic", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 12.45 } ], "limit": "This is a proxy envelope across the listed facility categories, not a statistical confidence interval or a tenant-mix model." }, "warehouse": { "center_per_sqft": 3.68, "low_per_sqft": 3.68, "high_per_sqft": 3.68, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "4421", "label": "Covered Storage Building, Installation", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 3.68 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "restaurant": { "center_per_sqft": 6.43, "low_per_sqft": 6.43, "high_per_sqft": 6.43, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7220", "label": "Dining Facility", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 6.43 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." }, "single_family_resi": { "center_per_sqft": 3.06, "low_per_sqft": 3.06, "high_per_sqft": 3.06, "center_method": "Exact FY2026 Table 3 facility-category value.", "proxy_rows": [ { "fac_code": "7110", "label": "Family Housing Dwelling", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 3.06 } ], "limit": "The calculator building segment is broader than the named DoD facility category." } }, "facility_category": { "fac_code": "6100", "label": "Administrative office", "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 5.4, "recomputation": "($22,822.24 minor repair + $30,008.11 preventive maintenance) / 9,783 square feet = $5.4002, published as $5.40" }, "trade_allocations": { "painting": { "label": "Painting / coatings", "share": 0.144, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.7776 }, "drywall": { "label": "Drywall", "share": 0.079, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.4266 }, "glass_glazing": { "label": "Glass / glazing", "share": 0.077, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.4158 }, "flooring": { "label": "Flooring", "share": 0.074, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.3996 }, "masonry": { "label": "Masonry", "share": 0.03, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.162 }, "security_low_voltage": { "label": "Security / low voltage", "share": 0.006, "annual_sustainment_per_sqft": 0.0324 } }, "unmatched_share": 0.147, "excluded_scopes": [ "custodial services", "grass cutting", "landscaping", "waste disposal", "central utilities" ], "unsupported_trade_keys": [ "other" ], "geographic_adjustment": "Withheld in this first publication. The federal guide publishes installation factors, but applying one without a verified building location to installation mapping would create false precision.", "allocation_limit": "DoD publishes the facility sustainment task list, not these trade labels. Level mapped the FAC 6100 tasks to trades, left 14.7% unmatched, and did not redistribute it. No other building category is published until its task mapping is reviewed separately.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "DoD Facilities Pricing Guide UFS 3-701-01, July 2026", "url": "https://nibs-s3-wbdg3-production.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/documents/2026-07/ufs_3_701_01_07_2026_1785515833242_ilsjl8wg0n.pdf" }, { "name": "WBDG official document API record", "url": "https://www.wbdg.org/api/documents?search=3-701-01" }, { "name": "DoD Facilities Pricing Guide FY2026 data tables", "url": "https://nibs-s3-wbdg3-production.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/media/2026-08/ufs_3_701_01_July_2026_Data_Tables_v2_1785874580922_xtunm5w6d8s.xlsx" } ] }, "trades": [ { "trade": "hvac", "label": "HVAC / mechanical", "publication_status": "measured_building_specific", "confidence": "Measured building-specific benchmark", "annual_revenue_anchor": null, "scope": "total_account_revenue", "scope_label": "Total annual account revenue", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": true, "public_service_award_check": { "trade": "hvac", "label": "HVAC / mechanical", "awards": 30, "recipients": 21, "states": 16, "p25": 10570, "median": 16775, "p75": 140066 }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Level billed revenue by building type, size, and validated age effects.", "formula": "Existing measured HVAC segment estimator. No permit coefficient is used.", "permitted_inputs": [ "building_type", "validated_size_band", "validated_age_band" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "permit dollar level" ] }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Central air-conditioning or built-in-heating project", "jobtype_codes": [ 26, 27 ], "unweighted_projects": 3294, "weighted_projects": 9654798, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 3900, "median": 6600, "p75": 9900 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 4.16, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 335 }, "evidence": { "label": "Measured contractor billing by building type", "basis": "Measured building-specific benchmark", "result_scope": "measured_building_specific", "limitation": "Measured building-specific benchmark" }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 24.1, "low_margin_pct": 19.3, "high_margin_pct": 25.1, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "Editable mechanical-contractor planning range centered on verified Comfort Systems USA FY2025 margin, with verified EMCOR FY2025 context and an unreproduced legacy Limbach high input", "source_scope": "Company-wide mechanical and electrical contracting, not one account. The retained Limbach 25.1% reference is an unreproduced editable calibration, not a verified reported-year margin; verified Limbach FY2025 is 26.2%.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Comfort Systems USA 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm", "gross_margin_pct": 24.1 }, { "name": "EMCOR Group 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm", "gross_margin_pct": 19.3 }, { "name": "Limbach annual-report context for a retained editable planning reference", "url": "https://www.limbachinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/LMB-2025-Annual-Report.pdf", "gross_margin_pct": 25.1, "interpretation": "unreproduced_legacy_calibration_not_reported_year_margin", "source_role": "company_context_only_not_reproduction_of_retained_margin", "limitation": "Retained 25.1% calibration is not a verified reported FY2025 or FY2024 margin. Verified FY2025 gross profit divided by revenue is 26.2%; the retained input remains editable and unreproduced." } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company context with editable planning inputs", "basis": "Editable mechanical-contractor planning range centered on verified Comfort Systems USA FY2025 margin, with verified EMCOR FY2025 context and an unreproduced legacy Limbach high input", "limitation": "Company-wide mechanical and electrical contracting, not one account. The retained Limbach 25.1% reference is an unreproduced editable calibration, not a verified reported-year margin; verified Limbach FY2025 is 26.2%." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "electrical", "label": "Electrical", "publication_status": "measured_generic", "confidence": "Measured generic benchmark, stable across two trade classifiers", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Level billed revenue, combined name and serviced-asset cohort", "headline": 19045, "p25": 13237, "p75": 33597, "rationale": "The combined cohort covers 48 contractors and stays within 5% of the independent name-only and asset-only medians. The deterministic holdout passed. Building-type adjustments are withheld because they worsened held-out prediction.", "scope": "total_account_revenue", "scope_label": "Total annual account revenue", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": true }, "level_billing_evidence": { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "combined", "trade": "electrical", "contractors": 48, "buildings": 5631, "p25": 13237, "median": 19045, "p75": 33597, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.1392, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.1975, "train_contractors": 47, "train_p25": 12985, "train_median": 17108, "train_p75": 32522, "test_contractors": 37, "test_buildings": 1152, "test_median": 17011, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, "classifier_sensitivity": [ { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "asset_only", "trade": "electrical", "contractors": 23, "buildings": 2863, "p25": 13489, "median": 18296, "p75": 35335, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.2347, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.3486, "train_contractors": 23, "train_p25": 13175, "train_median": 17805, "train_p75": 33353, "test_contractors": 19, "test_buildings": 592, "test_median": 22016, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "combined", "trade": "electrical", "contractors": 48, "buildings": 5631, "p25": 13237, "median": 19045, "p75": 33597, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.1392, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.1975, "train_contractors": 47, "train_p25": 12985, "train_median": 17108, "train_p75": 32522, "test_contractors": 37, "test_buildings": 1152, "test_median": 17011, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "name_only", "trade": "electrical", "contractors": 46, "buildings": 5713, "p25": 13489, "median": 19229, "p75": 35335, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.1372, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.1877, "train_contractors": 44, "train_p25": 12985, "train_median": 17755, "train_p75": 32522, "test_contractors": 35, "test_buildings": 1177, "test_median": 15917, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" } ], "public_service_award_check": { "trade": "electrical", "label": "Electrical", "awards": 9, "recipients": 9, "states": 8, "p25": 20206, "median": 37000, "p75": 126060 }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "No adjustment published.", "formula": "Generic annual revenue anchor only.", "permitted_inputs": [], "excluded_inputs": [ "building_type", "size_band", "building age", "permit dollar level" ] }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Wiring, panel, fuse-box, or built-in-lighting project", "jobtype_codes": [ 23 ], "unweighted_projects": 1287, "weighted_projects": 3853871, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 800, "median": 1800, "p75": 4200 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 1.66, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 71 }, "evidence": { "label": "Measured contractor billing, with building adjustments withheld", "basis": "Measured generic benchmark, stable across two trade classifiers", "result_scope": "Total annual account revenue", "limitation": "The combined cohort covers 48 contractors and stays within 5% of the independent name-only and asset-only medians. The deterministic holdout passed. Building-type adjustments are withheld because they worsened held-out prediction." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 25.5, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "IES Holdings fiscal 2025 gross profit divided by revenue", "source_scope": "Integrated electrical and technology contractor, not one account", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "IES Holdings 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048268/000104826825000174/iesc-20250930.htm", "revenue_millions": 3371.5, "gross_profit_millions": 859.5, "gross_margin_pct": 25.5 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "IES Holdings fiscal 2025 gross profit divided by revenue", "limitation": "Integrated electrical and technology contractor, not one account" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "plumbing", "label": "Plumbing", "publication_status": "modeled_partial_opportunity", "confidence": "Public-data capital opportunity, recurring service requires a known device count", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "state and local plumbing-upgrade permits multiplied by EIA CBECS annual upgrade incidence", "low": null, "headline": null, "high": null, "rationale": "No complete annual plumbing-revenue anchor is published. The primary result is a conditional permitted upgrade value. Annualized capital opportunity remains a secondary portfolio-planning statistic.", "scope": "capital_only", "scope_label": "No complete annual plumbing benchmark", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Do not treat the conditional project value or the annualized planning statistic as total annual plumbing revenue.", "headline_reason": "A conditional project value and a portfolio annualization are both published separately, but neither is complete annual plumbing revenue." }, "primary_published_result": { "source": "state-balanced plumbing-upgrade permit values", "low": 6640, "headline": 13527, "high": 70417, "result_kind": "conditional_project", "scope": "permitted_plumbing_upgrade_when_it_occurs", "scope_label": "Typical permitted plumbing upgrade, when it occurs", "is_annual_revenue": false, "selection_rule": "Use the selected building segment conditional_upgrade_project when available, otherwise use the all-supported-buildings fallback." }, "annualized_capital_opportunity": { "low": 37, "headline": 133, "high": 1042, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard", "publication_role": "secondary_portfolio_planning_context", "is_building_prediction": false }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "State-balanced plumbing-upgrade permit values plus EIA CBECS upgrade incidence.", "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x annual plumbing-upgrade hazard", "permitted_inputs": [ "building_type", "known backflow device count" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "generic permit multiplier", "size_band", "building age" ], "guardrail": "The output is labelled capital opportunity, not total plumbing revenue. Recurring service is not inferred without verified system inventory." }, "plumbing_capital_shape": { "method": [ "Permit values are restricted to descriptions that identify plumbing scope and replacement, installation, upgrade, renovation, remodel, repipe, or rehabilitation work. New-construction descriptions are excluded.", "A state-segment needs at least 25 projects, and a published segment needs at least 5 supported states. State medians receive equal weight so one high-volume jurisdiction cannot carry the result.", "EIA CBECS supplies annual plumbing-upgrade incidence. FINALWT and all 151 replicate weights were used, and every published hazard cleared EIA sample-size and RSE gates.", "This is capital opportunity only. It excludes drain calls, repairs, inspections, and other unpermitted service." ], "known_limits": [ "A declared permit value is project scope, not an invoice or collected revenue.", "Jurisdictions differ in whether a trade permit carries whole-project value or trade-only value. State balancing and a wide range reduce but do not remove that difference.", "The constant annual hazard converts an 18-year CBECS observation window into a yearly portfolio expectation. It does not predict whether one named building upgrades this year." ], "sources": { "permit_source": "Licensed building-permit compilation of state and local records, 2022 through 2024", "cbecs_microdata": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "cbecs_user_guide": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf" }, "claim_support_download": "/data/benchmarks/plumbing-capital-opportunity-claim-support.csv", "fallback": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 43, "projects": 86379, "p25": 6640, "median": 13527, "p75": 70417, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.98, "low": 0.56, "high": 1.48, "proxy": "median published CBECS cohort" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 37, "headline": 133, "high": 1042, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "segments": { "mixed_use": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 21, "projects": 5862, "p25": 5543, "median": 9116, "p75": 30000, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.98, "low": 0.67, "high": 1.32, "proxy": "public assembly" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 37, "headline": 89, "high": 396, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "office": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 31, "projects": 17786, "p25": 9738, "median": 17778, "p75": 85918, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.76, "low": 0.56, "high": 0.96 }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 55, "headline": 135, "high": 825, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "grocery_cstore": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 15, "projects": 1738, "p25": 4000, "median": 13000, "p75": 30000, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.98, "low": 0.28, "high": 1.78, "proxy": "food sales" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 11, "headline": 127, "high": 534, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "healthcare": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 22, "projects": 6312, "p25": 9173, "median": 26087, "p75": 61250, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 1.55, "low": 0.72, "high": 2.54, "proxy": "outpatient health" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 66, "headline": 404, "high": 1556, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "industrial": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 30, "projects": 12531, "p25": 8171, "median": 12918, "p75": 30318, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.22, "low": 0.06, "high": 0.38, "proxy": "warehouse" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 5, "headline": 28, "high": 115, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "restaurant": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 24, "projects": 4609, "p25": 6150, "median": 8332, "p75": 25860, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 1.7, "low": 1.07, "high": 2.42, "proxy": "food service" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 66, "headline": 142, "high": 626, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "retail": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 33, "projects": 15252, "p25": 7326, "median": 13560, "p75": 65006, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 0.53, "low": 0.23, "high": 0.86 }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 17, "headline": 72, "high": 559, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "education": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 10, "projects": 468, "p25": 4086, "median": 6000, "p75": 15400, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 1.03, "low": 0.61, "high": 1.48 }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 25, "headline": 62, "high": 228, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } }, "hospitality": { "conditional_upgrade_project": { "states": 19, "projects": 3058, "p25": 10000, "median": 19600, "p75": 41699, "weighting": "Each supported state contributes one median, regardless of permit count." }, "annual_upgrade_hazard": { "annual_hazard_pct": 1.21, "low": 0.5, "high": 2.01, "proxy": "lodging" }, "annual_capital_opportunity": { "low": 50, "headline": 237, "high": 838, "formula": "conditional permitted upgrade value x modeled annual plumbing-upgrade hazard" } } } }, "directional_level_cross_check": [ { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "asset_only", "trade": "plumbing", "contractors": 6, "buildings": 1029, "p25": 17367, "median": 19553, "p75": 28975, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.587, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.1735, "train_contractors": 6, "train_p25": 17692, "train_median": 20590, "train_p75": 29771, "test_contractors": 5, "test_buildings": 195, "test_median": 18219, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "combined", "trade": "plumbing", "contractors": 9, "buildings": 1677, "p25": 12643, "median": 17367, "p75": 20035, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.3649, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.167, "train_contractors": 8, "train_p25": 5903, "train_median": 18552, "train_p75": 21769, "test_contractors": 7, "test_buildings": 324, "test_median": 18219, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "name_only", "trade": "plumbing", "contractors": 6, "buildings": 916, "p25": 6792, "median": 13663, "p75": 17367, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.6681, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.3227, "train_contractors": 5, "train_p25": 5903, "train_median": 12293, "train_p75": 17692, "test_contractors": 5, "test_buildings": 184, "test_median": 16028, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" } ], "device_reference": { "input": "known backflow assemblies", "center_per_device_year": 84.14, "low_per_device_year": 73, "high_per_device_year": 109, "center_method": "Median of source_observations per-device annual rates. With an even observation count, average the two middle rates.", "range_method": "Rounded minimum and maximum of source_observations. Excluded observations never enter the range.", "evidence": { "label": "Awarded per-device recurring prices", "basis": "Six included observations across four public programs, with two repeat bid cycles.", "limitation": "Applies only when a verified backflow assembly exists and excludes broader plumbing service." }, "observation_count": 6, "jurisdictions": [ "Rock Island IL", "FCC Lompoc", "Cosumnes CSD CA", "Columbia Public Schools MO" ], "source_observations": [ { "program": "Rock Island Arsenal 2025 rebid", "jurisdiction": "Rock Island IL", "devices": 236, "annual_price": 17143, "source_url": "https://rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/20007/Bid-Tab---Backflow-Testing-and-Maintenance-Contract---Rock-Island-Arsenal?bidId=", "per_device_year": 72.64 }, { "program": "Rock Island Arsenal 2022 bid", "jurisdiction": "Rock Island IL", "devices": 236, "annual_price": 19116, "source_url": "https://www.rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/17507", "per_device_year": 81 }, { "program": "FCC Lompoc FY2023 award", "jurisdiction": "FCC Lompoc", "devices": 54, "annual_price": 4320, "source_url": "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_15B61723P00000121_1540_-NONE-_-NONE-", "per_device_year": 80 }, { "program": "Cosumnes CSD PM-24-011 low bid", "jurisdiction": "Cosumnes CSD CA", "devices": 541, "annual_price": 47220, "source_url": "https://www.cosumnescsd.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27397", "per_device_year": 87.28 }, { "program": "Columbia Public Schools C-25041 low inspection bid", "jurisdiction": "Columbia Public Schools MO", "devices": 181, "annual_price": 18074, "source_url": "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1731416191/cpsk12org/tt6n30m0mbdjfp2acojq/C-25041Backflow-Preventer-Inspections-and-Repairs-Bid-Tab-archive.pdf", "per_device_year": 99.86 }, { "program": "Columbia Public Schools C-26028 low inspection bid", "jurisdiction": "Columbia Public Schools MO", "devices": 145, "annual_price": 15740, "source_url": "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1762794748/cpsk12org/u3qkdryu5lpwod8po2iz/C-26028-Backflow-Preventer-Inspection-Repairs.pdf", "per_device_year": 108.55 } ], "excluded_observations": [ { "program": "Grand Canyon National Park FY2023 award", "jurisdiction": "Grand Canyon National Park", "devices": 125, "annual_price": 25297, "per_device_year": 202.38, "exclusion_reason": "The award covers South Rim, North Rim, and Inner Canyon access, so it prices unusual travel and access rather than an ordinary service route.", "source_url": "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_140P1523P0030_1443_-NONE-_-NONE-" } ], "rule": "Show separately as a recurring compliance reference only when the user supplies a verified count. Never default the device count to one. Applicable testing requirements and cadence vary by state, municipality, hazard, and water purveyor.", "regulatory_context": { "summary": "Cross-connection programs vary by state and municipality. Annual testing is common for applicable testable assemblies, but it is not a universal rule for every building or every backflow device.", "sources": [ "https://www.epa.gov/dwcapacity/distribution-resources-small-drinking-water-systems", "https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/law/WACPDF/WAC%20246%20%20TITLE/WAC%20246%20-290%20%20CHAPTER/WAC%20246%20-290%20-490.pdf" ] }, "per_building_density": { "assemblies_per_building_low": 3.5, "assemblies_per_building_high": 4.4, "annual_per_building_low": 384, "annual_per_building_high": 441, "basis": "Columbia Public Schools MO: 145 and 181 assemblies inspected against a verified 41-building portfolio (22 elementary, 7 middle, 4 high, 1 career centre, 7 administration).", "limit": "ONE district, and schools are restroom-dense. This likely overstates offices and understates restaurants. Publish per-device as the primary unit; per-building only where it is labelled school-derived." }, "primary_sources": [ "https://rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/20007/Bid-Tab---Backflow-Testing-and-Maintenance-Contract---Rock-Island-Arsenal?bidId=", "https://www.rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/17507", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_15B61723P00000121_1540_-NONE-_-NONE-", "https://www.cosumnescsd.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27397", "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1731416191/cpsk12org/tt6n30m0mbdjfp2acojq/C-25041Backflow-Preventer-Inspections-and-Repairs-Bid-Tab-archive.pdf", "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1762794748/cpsk12org/u3qkdryu5lpwod8po2iz/C-26028-Backflow-Preventer-Inspection-Repairs.pdf", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_140P1523P0030_1443_-NONE-_-NONE-", "https://www.cosumnescsd.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27221", "https://www.cpsk12.org/about/building-contact-list" ] }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Pipes, fixtures, septic, or water-heater project", "jobtype_codes": [ 21, 22, 28, 29 ], "unweighted_projects": 3836, "weighted_projects": 11248207, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 800, "median": 1400, "p75": 3100 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 4.85, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 156 }, "evidence": { "label": "Public project records combined with a federal building survey", "basis": "Public-data capital opportunity, recurring service requires a known device count", "result_scope": "No complete annual plumbing benchmark", "limitation": "Do not treat the conditional project value or the annualized planning statistic as total annual plumbing revenue." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 22.1, "low_margin_pct": 19, "high_margin_pct": 27.8, "benchmark_kind": "related_public_contractor_proxy", "source": "Editable 22.1% planning assumption with public mechanical-contractor context; not the median of the listed 21%, 19% and 27.8% reference values", "source_scope": "Conditional plumbing upgrade project proxy. The selected public examples have broader mechanical scope than plumbing alone. The retained Limbach 27.8% reference is an unreproduced editable calibration, not a verified reported-year margin; verified Limbach FY2025 is 26.2%. A profit illustration assumes declared permitted project scope becomes contractor revenue; a permit record does not establish an invoice.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Comfort Systems USA 2025 Form 10-K with comparative financial statements", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm", "gross_margin_pct": 21, "interpretation": "retained_historical_comparative_planning_reference_not_current_year_margin", "source_role": "historical_company_context_not_current_year_reproduction" }, { "name": "EMCOR Group 2024 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563425000015/eme-20241231.htm", "gross_margin_pct": 19, "interpretation": "retained_historical_comparative_planning_reference_not_current_year_margin", "source_role": "historical_company_context_not_current_year_reproduction" }, { "name": "Limbach annual-report context for a retained editable planning reference", "url": "https://www.limbachinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/LMB-2025-Annual-Report.pdf", "gross_margin_pct": 27.8, "interpretation": "unreproduced_legacy_calibration_not_reported_year_margin", "source_role": "company_context_only_not_reproduction_of_retained_margin", "limitation": "Retained 27.8% calibration is not a verified reported FY2025 or FY2024 margin. Verified FY2025 gross profit divided by revenue is 26.2%; the retained input remains editable and unreproduced." } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company context with editable planning inputs", "basis": "Editable 22.1% planning assumption with public mechanical-contractor context; not the median of the listed 21%, 19% and 27.8% reference values", "limitation": "Conditional plumbing upgrade project proxy. The selected public examples have broader mechanical scope than plumbing alone. The retained Limbach 27.8% reference is an unreproduced editable calibration, not a verified reported-year margin; verified Limbach FY2025 is 26.2%. A profit illustration assumes declared permitted project scope becomes contractor revenue; a permit record does not establish an invoice." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "fire_protection", "label": "Fire protection", "publication_status": "modeled_recurring_floor", "confidence": "Public awarded sprinkler ITM floor, scaled by maximum riser coverage", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "NFPA maximum floor area per riser plus Lee County awarded per-riser pricing", "headline": 658, "p25": 485, "p75": 830, "range_basis": "formula_bounds", "range_evidence_scope": "one_inferred_riser_inspection_price_formulas", "rationale": "This is a recurring sprinkler inspection and testing floor for a one-riser building. It excludes alarm, extinguisher, kitchen suppression, repairs, and capital work unless separately entered. The legacy p25/p75 fields hold low/high inspection-price formula bounds for one inferred riser, not observed percentiles; the center is a rounded formula midpoint.", "scope": "recurring_compliance_floor", "scope_label": "Sprinkler inspection floor only", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "This is a mandated-inspection floor, not total fire-protection account revenue. It reads far below a total-account figure by construction." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "NFPA maximum riser coverage and an awarded public-school unit-price schedule.", "formula": "ceil(gross floor area / 52,000) risers x awarded annual or quarterly schedule, plus stated recurring location items", "permitted_inputs": [ "gross floor area", "known covered alarm device count" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "permit dollar level", "building age" ] }, "fire_area_model": { "max_floor_sqft_per_riser": 52000, "low_per_riser_year": 275, "high_per_riser_year": 620, "per_location_year": 210, "low_formula": "risers x ($175 annual service + $500 five-year inspection / 5) + $110 backflow + $100 forward-flow test", "high_formula": "risers x $620 inferred quarterly-cadence bundle + $110 backflow + $100 forward-flow test", "caveat": "Riser count is a minimum inferred from maximum coverage. Actual zoning, standpipes, hazard class, and fire pumps can increase scope. The cadence range is an inference from the awarded schedule, not an NFPA 25 frequency claim.", "primary_sources": [ "https://docinfofiles.nfpa.org/files/AboutTheCodes/13/13_A2018_AUT_SSD_SRReport.pdf", "https://www.leeschools.net/common/pages/GetFile.ashx?key=cV5JDsev" ] }, "directional_level_cross_check": [ { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "asset_only", "trade": "fire_protection", "contractors": 12, "buildings": 2138, "p25": 10359, "median": 13062, "p75": 17257, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.3812, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.3787, "train_contractors": 12, "train_p25": 8182, "train_median": 11998, "train_p75": 17705, "test_contractors": 12, "test_buildings": 413, "test_median": 15038, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "combined", "trade": "fire_protection", "contractors": 11, "buildings": 1767, "p25": 7147, "median": 11538, "p75": 17257, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.4612, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.1039, "train_contractors": 11, "train_p25": 7324, "train_median": 10596, "train_p75": 17231, "test_contractors": 11, "test_buildings": 336, "test_median": 14828, "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half" }, { "row_type": "cohort", "classifier": "name_only", "trade": "fire_protection", "contractors": 8, "buildings": 1367, "p25": 5944, "median": 10484, "p75": 11965, "top_contractor_building_share": 0.5962, "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.094, "train_contractors": 8, "train_p25": 5864, "train_median": 8491, "train_p75": 10696, "test_contractors": 8, "test_buildings": 262, "test_median": 12129, "holdout_result": "outside_train_middle_half" } ], "device_reference": { "input": "known covered fire-alarm devices", "center_per_device_year": 22.49, "center_method": "Pooled annual price divided by pooled covered-device count across source_observations.", "rule": "Show separately as a comprehensive alarm-service scenario. Do not generalize beyond the two same-vendor water-plant observations.", "primary_source": "https://www.ecwa.org/files/pdf/2022-09-15_resolutions.pdf", "source_document": "ECWA Project No. 2022000218, Johnson Controls Fire Alarm Testing and Inspection Agreement. Device schedules and prices are transcribed from the official board agreement; the linked resolution confirms the project, vendor, facilities, and authorization.", "source_observations": [ { "facility": "Van De Water", "devices": 192, "annual_price": 4260 }, { "facility": "Sturgeon Point", "devices": 225, "annual_price": 5120 } ] }, "public_recurring_floor": { "headline": 681, "p25": 240, "p75": 1113, "buildings": 8, "scope": "Recurring alarm and sprinkler inspection or maintenance, repairs extra.", "primary_source": "https://www.garrettcountymd.gov/sites/default/files/Bid%20%2317-1109FP-ARK%20Systems.pdf" }, "evidence": { "label": "Awarded recurring-service floor", "basis": "Public awarded sprinkler ITM floor, scaled by maximum riser coverage", "result_scope": "Sprinkler inspection floor only", "limitation": "This range comes from inspection-price formulas and inferred minimum risers, not an observed percentile distribution. It excludes other fire systems, repairs and capital work." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 31.4, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "APi Group 2025 reported gross margin", "source_scope": "Safety and specialty services company, broader than sprinkler inspection alone", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "APi Group full-year 2025 company results", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/155847588/files/doc_news/APi-Group-Reports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-2026.pdf", "gross_margin_pct": 31.4 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "APi Group 2025 reported gross margin", "limitation": "Safety and specialty services company, broader than sprinkler inspection alone" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "roofing", "label": "Roofing", "publication_status": "modeled_estimate", "confidence": "Roof-area model from executed maintenance pricing and five public project-price observations, including an archived WCTC base bid", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "USAspending recurring service awards", "headline": 19855, "p25": 10963, "p75": 38476, "rationale": "When roof area is unavailable, public-facility service awards provide a broad scope reference, not a private-building estimate. Public scope and labor rules may raise cost. With a measured roof footprint, the calculator uses the separate recurring and replacement evidence below.", "scope": "public_award_reference", "scope_label": "Public-award scope reference", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Federal and public facility awards carry Davis-Bacon prevailing wage and campus-wide scope, so they overstate a single private building. Supply roof area to get the evidence-based recurring figure instead." }, "level_billing_evidence_status": { "published": false, "reasons": [ "only 1 contributing contractor", "held-out result fell outside the training middle half" ], "rule": "A Level cohort needs at least 10 contributing contractors and a held-out result inside the training middle half before it can appear as corroboration." }, "public_service_award_check": { "trade": "roofing", "label": "Roofing", "awards": 17, "recipients": 14, "states": 9, "p25": 10963, "median": 19855, "p75": 38476 }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Measured roof footprint, executed recurring-service pricing, and public replacement awards.", "formula": "roof area x (annual housekeeping + agency-balanced replacement value / 25-year cycle)", "permitted_inputs": [ "roof footprint square feet" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "gross floor area", "permit dollar level", "building age", "unverified roof age" ] }, "roof_area_model": { "required_input": "roof footprint square feet", "recurring_housekeeping_per_roof_sqft_year": 0.14, "semiannual_schedule_rate_per_roof_sqft": 0.23, "semiannual_rate_usage": "Displayed as source context only. The schedule does not resolve whether this is a program total or per visit, so the calculator does not use it.", "replacement_event_per_roof_sqft": { "low": 18.66, "central": 22.12, "high": 33.97, "method": "Agency-balanced central value. Helena contributes its within-agency median, then the central value is the median across Helena, WCTC, and Henrico. The envelope covers five public project-price observations. WCTC uses the base bid, excluding contingency; its complete source memo is recovered from an archived packet with structural warnings. These public projects are planning references, not a representative private-project price distribution.", "withdrawn_observation": "A Valencia College award at $54.57 per roof square foot was removed on 2026-08-12 because its cited document returns 404 and no working URL exists. It had been the high anchor, so the central value moved 27.67 to 22.12 and the envelope high 54.57 to 33.97. A published number may not rest on an unverifiable source." }, "replacement_cycle_years": { "low": 20, "central": 25, "high": 30 }, "portfolio_equivalent_annual_per_roof_sqft": { "low": 0.76, "central": 1.02, "high": 1.84, "formula": "annual housekeeping + replacement event value / replacement cycle" }, "headline_component": "recurring_housekeeping", "headline_rule": "The displayed roofing headline is the recurring housekeeping line, because that is what a roofing contractor bills in an ordinary year. The portfolio-equivalent annual figure and the replacement event are shown as separate secondary lines. Leading with the portfolio-equivalent overstated a typical year by roughly 7x against the recurring line and read as bookable revenue.", "timing_rule": "This is a portfolio-equivalent annual opportunity, not the likely invoice in one year. Roof age may be shown qualitatively but does not change dollars until a hazard model is validated.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Manatee County Port Authority, Region 4 ESC contract R230404 pricing schedule", "url": "https://www.seaportmanatee.com/agendas/agenda032426/agenda032426.html", "evidence": "Item 47 publishes annual roof housekeeping at $0.14 per roof square foot. Item 46g and Item 47 also publish inspection, leak-investigation, and minor-repair day rates, which are not added without a measured productivity assumption." }, { "name": "Waukesha County Technical College G and S roof replacement base bid, archived official memo", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260615113430id_/https://www.wctc.edu/Files/_site-pdfs/district-board/meeting-documents/2026-01/01132026-Board-Packet.pdf", "roof_sqft": 52312, "award": 1157000, "dollars_per_roof_sqft": 22.12, "source_role": "archived_primary_memo", "amount_basis": "Base contractor bid, excluding contingency. The legacy award field does not mean total board-authorized project cost.", "source_document_date": "2026-01-13", "archive_capture_timestamp": "20260615113430", "archive_sha256": "732d381a3bc8cb928fc231c17d206b1f1f839fee4feeac0d963bca238c801608", "archive_payload_digest_sha1_base32": "AOYQFCSS3PMKBIKH4RP4NC6AH4GC7QOA", "corroborating_url": "https://www.wctc.edu/Files/_site-pdfs/district-board/meeting-documents/2026-01/01132026-minutes_signed.pdf", "corroborating_role": "Signed minutes corroborate approval and contractor identity, not the exact area or bid amount.", "verification_note": "The original live packet returned 404 on 2026-10-07. Archived bytes match the Internet Archive payload digest. The archived packet has missing-EOF and cross-reference/stream warnings; its complete roofing memo on page 36 is readable and is the evidence used. This is not a claim that the entire packet is intact.", "area_basis": "Sum of two approximately reported roof areas, not a measured precise footprint." }, { "name": "Henrico WRF roof replacement award", "url": "https://swagit-attachments.granicus.com/uploads/event/agenda_file/38994/052725ag.pdf", "roof_sqft": 22000, "award": 731055, "dollars_per_roof_sqft": 33.23 }, { "name": "Helena Public Schools roof replacement awards", "url": "https://helenaschools.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Board-of-Trustees-Agenda-04.09.24.pdf", "observations": [ { "roof_sqft": 7120, "award": 150502, "dollars_per_roof_sqft": 21.14 }, { "roof_sqft": 8070, "award": 274135, "dollars_per_roof_sqft": 33.97 }, { "roof_sqft": 24110, "award": 450000, "dollars_per_roof_sqft": 18.66 } ] } ] }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Roofing replacement or addition", "jobtype_codes": [ 16 ], "unweighted_projects": 2056, "weighted_projects": 6445881, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 7400, "median": 11600, "p75": 17000 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 2.78, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 388 }, "evidence": { "label": "Executed maintenance pricing and public project-price references", "basis": "Roof-area model from executed maintenance pricing and five retained public project-price observations across three agencies; WCTC base-bid evidence uses an archived primary memo", "result_scope": "Public-award scope reference", "limitation": "Federal and public facility awards carry Davis-Bacon prevailing wage and campus-wide scope, so they overstate a single private building. Supply roof area to get the evidence-based recurring figure instead." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 37.9, "high_margin_pct": 53, "benchmark_kind": "level_recurring_service_agreements", "source": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "source_url": "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "source_scope": "Recurring service agreement proxy for the ordinary-year roof housekeeping headline. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%.", "evidence": { "label": "Level measured recurring-service benchmark", "basis": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "limitation": "Recurring service agreement proxy for the ordinary-year roof housekeeping headline. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context.", "high_margin_interpretation": "editable_planning_high_not_measured_percentile" } }, { "trade": "cleaning", "label": "Cleaning / janitorial", "publication_status": "executed_contract_area_model", "confidence": "Executed public-contract area model from one vendor and one state, checked against two independent public portfolios", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Michigan executed janitorial contract MA220000000273", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "There is no generic building total. The executed pricing sheets support annual revenue per cleanable square foot, so the calculator requires cleanable area and does not silently substitute gross floor area.", "scope": "inventory_scaled_service", "scope_label": "Per cleanable square foot", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires cleanable interior area. This is scheduled janitorial service revenue, not a total building account." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Executed Michigan contract pricing sheets and federal NCES custodial productivity levels.", "formula": "cleanable square feet x $1.66 per year x selected service-intensity multiplier", "permitted_inputs": [ "cleanable interior square feet", "cleaning service level" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "gross building square feet unless the whole interior is in scope", "building age", "permit dollar level" ] }, "janitorial_area_model": { "required_input": "cleanable interior square feet", "planning_scenario": { "default_basis": "resolved gross floor area", "default_value_rule": "Use the resolved gross floor area only as an editable whole-interior planning scenario.", "disclosure": "Assumes the entire resolved interior is in the cleaning scope. Edit the cleanable area when the contract covers only common areas, selected rooms, or part of the building." }, "annual_per_cleanable_sqft": { "low": 1.02, "central": 1.66, "high": 2.28, "scope": "Ordinary observed span in matched executed pricing sheets. This is not a population quartile." }, "service_levels": { "intensive": { "label": "Intensive cleaning", "multiplier": 1.52, "source_productivity_sqft_per_custodian_shift": "11,000 to 18,000" }, "standard": { "label": "Health and comfort standard", "multiplier": 1, "source_productivity_sqft_per_custodian_shift": "19,000 to 25,000" }, "light": { "label": "Light cleaning", "multiplier": 0.61, "source_productivity_sqft_per_custodian_shift": "26,000 to 46,000" } }, "default_service_level": "standard", "withheld_scope": [ "healthcare environmental services", "hotel housekeeping", "food sanitation" ], "primary_sources": [ { "name": "State of Michigan executed janitorial contract MA220000000273", "url": "https://www.michigan.gov/dtmb/-/media/Project/Websites/dtmb/Procurement/Contracts/008/220000000273.pdf?hash=B0B4EC13855C6569E115C3C5A770B2B9&rev=a882b78e0c2b4540b2fc44675a031be9", "evidence": "Matched pricing sheets publish annual dollars and square feet of area to be cleaned. Ordinary observed all-services rates span $1.02 to $2.28 per cleanable square foot annually, with a $1.66 central calibration." }, { "name": "NCES custodial staffing and cleaning levels", "url": "https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2003/fim/ch_4_5.asp", "evidence": "Federal cleaning-level productivity ranges support transparent service-intensity scenarios." }, { "name": "U.S. AbilityOne custodial case history", "url": "https://www.abilityone.gov/procurement_list/services_custodial_case_history.html", "evidence": "NASA Goddard reports 1,806,771 cleanable square feet and a $3.5 million current contract value, an order-of-magnitude check only because the page does not explicitly state that value is annual." }, { "name": "University of Kentucky custodial operations", "url": "https://facilities.uky.edu/campus/facilities-services/custodial", "evidence": "The reported cleanable area and staffing imply 25,882 cleanable square feet per custodial employee, close to the NCES standard-service range." } ], "known_limits": "One-vendor Michigan calibration is not a national distribution. Frequency, finish mix, supplies, security requirements, small-site minimums, and procurement rules can materially change revenue. Contract revenue is not profit." }, "evidence": { "label": "Executed area-priced service contracts", "basis": "Executed public-contract area model from one vendor and one state, checked against two independent public portfolios", "result_scope": "Per cleanable square foot", "limitation": "Requires cleanable interior area. This is scheduled janitorial service revenue, not a total building account." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 12.3, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "ABM Industries 2025 reported gross margin", "source_scope": "Large facility-services provider with substantial janitorial revenue", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "ABM Industries 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771497/000077149725000031/abm-20251031.htm", "gross_margin_pct": 12.3 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "ABM Industries 2025 reported gross margin", "limitation": "Large facility-services provider with substantial janitorial revenue" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "elevator", "label": "Elevator service", "publication_status": "public_contract_unit_model", "confidence": "Four official public portfolios covering 83 elevators, with mixed recurring-service scope", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Four official public elevator-maintenance portfolios", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "There is no generic building total. The recurring service reference requires the actual elevator count and keeps repairs and modernization separate.", "scope": "inventory_scaled_service", "scope_label": "Per elevator, recurring service only", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires actual covered elevator count. Mixed contract prices and one authorization ceiling form a planning comparison; repairs and modernization are separate." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Official awarded or approved public maintenance records normalized by covered elevator count.", "formula": "covered elevator count x $3,817 recurring service per elevator per year", "permitted_inputs": [ "covered elevator count" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "square footage", "building type", "modernization", "unmodeled repair events" ] }, "elevator_unit_model": { "required_input": "covered elevator count", "default_unit_count": 1, "default_unit_basis": "Editable one-elevator planning scenario when the building inventory is unavailable", "annual_per_elevator": { "low": 1950, "central": 3817, "high": 5556 }, "observations": 4, "elevators": 83, "range_definition": "Envelope of mixed contract/base prices and one authorization ceiling, not observed spending, a percentile distribution or a confidence interval.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "City of Merced TK Elevator agreement", "url": "https://cityofmerced.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=0F491757-D78F-4B2E-ABA2-D93C3FE2932B&ID=1247781&M=M", "elevators": 8, "annual_price": 32327.04, "per_elevator": 4040.88 }, { "name": "South Texas College Otis renewal", "url": "https://admin.southtexascollege.edu/president/agendas/2023/Board/2023-09-26-Regular-Board-Meeting-Packet.pdf", "elevators": 31, "annual_price": 111385.08, "per_elevator": 3593.07 }, { "name": "Los Angeles County Development Authority maintenance and repair ceiling", "url": "https://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/ceo/agendas/1135847_01.18.2023-CommunityServicesClusterMeeting.pdf", "elevators": 36, "annual_ceiling": 200000, "per_elevator_ceiling": 5555.56 }, { "name": "Sunny Isles Beach preventive maintenance and testing base", "url": "https://d2kbkoa27fdvtw.cloudfront.net/sibfl/1edd7480686ab4c017ccf3ff5151de5b0.pdf", "elevators": 8, "annual_base": 15600, "per_elevator": 1950 } ], "known_limits": "Coverage differs across contracts and one observation is a ceiling. Repairs and modernization are excluded. One Sunny Isles emergency repair cost $24,132, more than its entire $15,600 routine annual program, which is why the capital tail is not blended into the recurring figure." }, "territory_inventory_model": { "source": "EIA 2018 CBECS FINALWT and 151 replicate weights, applied to Level local building stock", "unit_label": "elevators", "rate_path": "elevator_unit_model.annual_per_elevator", "method": "For each supported building type: local building count x CBECS elevator prevalence gives buildings with elevators; local building count x CBECS weighted elevators per building gives installed elevators. The recurring public-contract rate is applied to estimated elevators.", "excludes_segments": [ "multifamily", "industrial" ], "segment_coefficients": { "office": { "cbecs_pba": [ 2 ], "sample_n": 1329, "prevalence": 0.1542, "prevalence_rse_pct": 10.8, "units_per_building": 0.57, "units_rse_pct": 23.7 }, "warehouse": { "cbecs_pba": [ 5, 11 ], "sample_n": 776, "prevalence": 0.0273, "prevalence_rse_pct": 28.4, "units_per_building": 0.034, "units_rse_pct": 24.7 }, "education": { "cbecs_pba": [ 14 ], "sample_n": 936, "prevalence": 0.1775, "prevalence_rse_pct": 12, "units_per_building": 0.229, "units_rse_pct": 10.7 }, "worship": { "cbecs_pba": [ 12 ], "sample_n": 271, "prevalence": 0.1065, "prevalence_rse_pct": 19.5, "units_per_building": 0.117, "units_rse_pct": 19.4 }, "healthcare": { "cbecs_pba": [ 8, 16, 17 ], "sample_n": 607, "prevalence": 0.2343, "prevalence_rse_pct": 13.7, "units_per_building": 1.33, "units_rse_pct": 17.8 }, "hospitality": { "cbecs_pba": [ 18 ], "sample_n": 418, "prevalence": 0.2775, "prevalence_rse_pct": 17.5, "units_per_building": 0.741, "units_rse_pct": 18.9 }, "government": { "cbecs_pba": [ 7, 13 ], "sample_n": 586, "prevalence": 0.1135, "prevalence_rse_pct": 15.3, "units_per_building": 0.259, "units_rse_pct": 21.8 } }, "primary_source": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "methodology_source": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf", "known_limits": "CBECS excludes multifamily residential buildings. Local estimates cover only building types present in Level local stock and are planning estimates, not an equipment census." }, "evidence": { "label": "Mixed public contract prices and authorization ceiling", "basis": "Four public maintenance records covering 83 elevators: three contract/base prices and one authorization ceiling; the center is their median, not a measured spending median", "result_scope": "Per elevator, recurring service only", "limitation": "The center is the median of three contract/base prices and one authorization ceiling; the high end is the ceiling. These mixed records provide a planning comparison, not observed spending or a market percentile. Repairs and modernization require separate scope." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 30.3, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "Otis Worldwide 2025 reported gross margin", "source_scope": "Elevator service and new equipment combined. Service produced 65% of sales.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Otis Worldwide 2025 annual report", "url": "https://www.otis.com/documents/d/otis-2/otis-annual-report", "gross_margin_pct": 30.3 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "Otis Worldwide 2025 reported gross margin", "limitation": "Elevator service and new equipment combined. Service produced 65% of sales." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "refrigeration", "label": "Commercial refrigeration", "publication_status": "public_contract_unit_model", "confidence": "Two same-district awarded equipment schedules with exact unit counts and an independent large-venue scope check", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Newmarket School District awarded refrigeration PM contracts", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "There is no generic building total. The scheduled-maintenance floor requires covered refrigeration-equipment count. Repairs and replacement remain separate because observed all-in uplift varies materially by building type.", "scope": "inventory_scaled_service", "scope_label": "Per refrigeration unit, scheduled PM only", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires a real equipment count and excludes repairs and replacement, so it is a scheduled-maintenance floor." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Awarded biannual preventive-maintenance contracts normalized by listed commercial refrigeration units.", "formula": "covered refrigeration unit count x $282 scheduled maintenance per unit per year", "permitted_inputs": [ "covered commercial refrigeration equipment count" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "square footage alone", "repairs", "replacement", "one universal PM-to-total scalar" ] }, "refrigeration_unit_model": { "required_input": "covered commercial refrigeration equipment count", "default_unit_count": 1, "default_unit_basis": "Editable one-unit planning scenario when the building inventory is unavailable", "scheduled_pm_per_unit_year": { "low": 220, "central": 282, "high": 344 }, "range_definition": "Two awarded biannual-PM observations from the same district, not a confidence interval.", "large_complex_facility_scenario_per_unit_year": 1054, "large_complex_facility_rule": "Show separately as an all-in convention-center scenario that includes PM, repairs, and replacement. Never use it as the default.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Newmarket 2023 refrigeration PM RFP", "url": "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2422920/6414a422-dc2d-11ec-9e02-0a26b8331069/file/RFP%20Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Services_%202023.pdf" }, { "name": "Newmarket 2023 bid tab", "url": "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2433209/3172ac36-e816-11ec-abc1-02f7a0dded9d/file/Bid%20Tab%20Sheet-Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Services.pdf" }, { "name": "Newmarket 2023 award notice", "url": "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2437162/ca56022e-ee54-11ec-aec0-0e216979ff5f/file/Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Bid%20Award%20Notice.pdf", "units": 20, "annual_price": 4400, "per_unit": 220 }, { "name": "Newmarket 2020 award notice", "url": "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2292888/23623fb8-e997-11eb-b50b-0e8cd3911189/file/Refrigeration%20Services_Award%20Notification.pdf", "units": 17, "annual_price": 5850, "per_unit": 344.12 }, { "name": "Orange County Convention Center award", "url": "https://occompt.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?GUID=495F0C48-559A-46C1-B9B8-DD9C1BB92B09&ID=7157818&Options=&Search=", "units_approximate": 500, "five_year_ceiling": 2635400, "annualized_per_unit": 1054.16 } ], "known_limits": "The scheduled-PM calibration comes from one school district. Equipment type, temperature, redundancy, duty cycle, emergency coverage, parts, and repair inclusion change revenue. The large-venue figure is an award ceiling and is not the default." }, "territory_inventory_model": { "source": "EIA 2018 CBECS equipment inventory plus 2023 Census County Business Patterns food-location counts, applied to Level local building stock", "unit_label": "commercial refrigeration units", "rate_path": "refrigeration_unit_model.scheduled_pm_per_unit_year", "method": "For supported Level building types: local buildings x CBECS refrigeration prevalence estimates equipped buildings, and local buildings x CBECS weighted units per building estimates equipment. Food service and grocery locations come from local Census CBP establishments and use CBECS food-service and food-sales equipment factors.", "excludes_segments": [ "multifamily", "industrial" ], "segment_coefficients": { "office": { "cbecs_pba": [ 2 ], "sample_n": 1329, "prevalence": 0.1016, "prevalence_rse_pct": 12.9, "units_per_building": 0.317, "units_rse_pct": 10.6 }, "warehouse": { "cbecs_pba": [ 5, 11 ], "sample_n": 776, "prevalence": 0.0673, "prevalence_rse_pct": 19.4, "units_per_building": 0.148, "units_rse_pct": 21.1 }, "education": { "cbecs_pba": [ 14 ], "sample_n": 936, "prevalence": 0.2554, "prevalence_rse_pct": 10.6, "units_per_building": 1.025, "units_rse_pct": 11.3 }, "worship": { "cbecs_pba": [ 12 ], "sample_n": 271, "prevalence": 0.1892, "prevalence_rse_pct": 17.5, "units_per_building": 0.361, "units_rse_pct": 19.6 }, "healthcare": { "cbecs_pba": [ 8, 16, 17 ], "sample_n": 607, "prevalence": 0.3232, "prevalence_rse_pct": 10.6, "units_per_building": 1.76, "units_rse_pct": 8.9 }, "hospitality": { "cbecs_pba": [ 18 ], "sample_n": 418, "prevalence": 0.403, "prevalence_rse_pct": 16, "units_per_building": 1.887, "units_rse_pct": 13.4 }, "government": { "cbecs_pba": [ 7, 13 ], "sample_n": 586, "prevalence": 0.3222, "prevalence_rse_pct": 9.7, "units_per_building": 1.094, "units_rse_pct": 9.6 } }, "cbp_location_coefficients": { "food_service": { "naics_2022": "7225", "cbecs_pba": [ 15 ], "sample_n": 218, "prevalence": 0.9423, "prevalence_rse_pct": 2.4, "units_per_building": 5.181, "units_rse_pct": 6.6, "units_per_location": 5.181 }, "food_sales": { "naics_2022": "4451", "cbecs_pba": [ 6 ], "sample_n": 91, "prevalence": 0.963, "prevalence_rse_pct": 3, "units_per_building": 8.503, "units_rse_pct": 10, "units_per_location": 8.503 } }, "derivation": { "script": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/derive-cbecs-refrigeration-inventory.mjs", "source_sha256": "3e37c81aab2938e63fae47bec837270ba696699aceef904d1326dd25970e7247", "source_records": 6436, "definition": { "prevalence": "FINALWT-weighted share of buildings where RFGWIN + RFGOPN + RFGCLN + RFGICN is greater than zero.", "units_per_building": "FINALWT-weighted unconditional mean of RFGWIN + RFGOPN + RFGCLN + RFGICN across all buildings in the PBA group.", "count_variables": [ "RFGWIN", "RFGOPN", "RFGCLN", "RFGICN" ], "excluded_refrigeration_variables": [ "RFGVNN", "RFGSTP" ], "rse": "CBECS jackknife: square root of the sum across FINALWT1 through FINALWT151 of (replicate estimate - full estimate)^2, divided by the full estimate, times 100.", "rounding": { "prevalence": 4, "prevalence_rse_pct": 1, "units_per_building": 3, "units_rse_pct": 1 } } }, "cbecs_primary_source": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "cbecs_methodology_source": "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf", "cbp_metro_source": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/datasets/2023/cbp23msa.zip", "cbp_state_source": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/datasets/2023/cbp23st.zip", "known_limits": "This is a top-down planning estimate. CBP establishments are operating locations, not verified equipment inventories. CBECS is national, while the building and establishment counts are local. Repairs, replacement, and unlisted food retail categories remain outside the scheduled-PM estimate." }, "evidence": { "label": "Public unit-priced service contracts", "basis": "Two same-district awarded equipment schedules with exact unit counts and an independent large-venue scope check", "result_scope": "Per refrigeration unit, scheduled PM only", "limitation": "Requires a real equipment count and excludes repairs and replacement, so it is a scheduled-maintenance floor." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 37.9, "high_margin_pct": 53, "benchmark_kind": "level_recurring_service_agreements", "source": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "source_url": "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "source_scope": "Recurring service agreement proxy for scheduled refrigeration maintenance. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%.", "evidence": { "label": "Level measured recurring-service benchmark", "basis": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "limitation": "Recurring service agreement proxy for scheduled refrigeration maintenance. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context.", "high_margin_interpretation": "editable_planning_high_not_measured_percentile" } }, { "trade": "landscaping", "label": "Landscaping / grounds", "publication_status": "public_contract_area_model", "confidence": "Four official public contracts with maintained-landscape denominators and materially different service scopes", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Four official awarded or executed grounds-maintenance contracts", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "There is no generic building total. Grounds revenue follows maintained landscape area and service scope, not building square footage, so the calculator requires maintained acres.", "scope": "maintained_area_service", "scope_label": "Per maintained landscape acre", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires maintained acres. The observed rates span 43x because mowing-focused, mixed grounds, detailed multi-site, and high-touch district scopes are not interchangeable." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Official public contracts normalized by maintained landscape acres.", "formula": "maintained landscape acres x the selected public-contract scope rate", "permitted_inputs": [ "maintained landscape acres", "grounds service scope" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "building square footage", "parcel area", "irrigation repair", "tree work", "snow", "capital beautification", "contingencies" ] }, "unit_service_model": { "required_input": "maintained landscape acres", "default_unit_count": 1, "default_unit_basis": "Editable one-acre planning scenario when the address does not return a usable site footprint", "unit_label": "maintained acres", "input_label": "Maintained landscape acres", "input_placeholder": "e.g. 3.5 acres", "allow_decimal": true, "default_service_level": "mixed", "service_levels": { "mowing": { "label": "Mowing focused", "annual_per_unit": { "central": 410.88 } }, "mixed": { "label": "Mixed mowing + landscape", "annual_per_unit": { "central": 1174.48 } }, "detailed": { "label": "Detailed multi-site landscape", "annual_per_unit": { "central": 9381.82 } } }, "range_definition": "No combined range is published because the observations represent different scopes, not a statistical distribution.", "observations": 4, "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Greenville mowing and landscape maintenance award", "url": "https://d3n9y02raazwpg.cloudfront.net/greenville/a5309680-56c5-11ed-95a3-0050569183fa-970bf21f-f56b-416f-a6a9-70488f43e9f9-1678907631.pdf", "maintained_acres": 107, "annual_price": 43964.16, "per_acre_year": 410.88, "service_level": "mowing" }, { "name": "Plano public grounds mowing and landscape award", "url": "https://plano.novusagenda.com/Agendapublic/CoverSheet.aspx?ItemID=8331&MeetingID=3407", "maintained_acres": 172, "annual_price": 202010, "per_acre_year": 1174.48, "service_level": "mixed" }, { "name": "Lake Oswego multi-site landscape contract", "url": "https://apps.lakeoswego.city/WebLink/DocView.aspx?dbid=0&id=3342905&repo=CityOfLakeOswego", "maintained_acres_approximate": 55, "annual_price": 516000, "per_acre_year": 9381.82, "service_level": "detailed" }, { "name": "Baytree high-touch district landscape contract", "url": "https://brevardfl.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=77C7C44B-DD64-492F-830B-3AF25C2272C7&ID=14529399&M=F", "landscape_sqft": 352000, "annual_price": 141672, "per_acre_year": 17531.91, "service_level": "high_touch_comparison_only" } ], "known_limits": "The default is one Plano public-contract comparison, not a market median or bid. Site count, frequency, finish standard, climate, labor, irrigation, trees, snow, and travel materially change revenue." }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Landscaping or sprinkler-system project", "jobtype_codes": [ 36 ], "unweighted_projects": 1133, "weighted_projects": 3345154, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 1400, "median": 3100, "p75": 5500 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 1.44, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 92 }, "evidence": { "label": "Public area-priced service contracts", "basis": "Four official public contracts with maintained-landscape denominators and materially different service scopes", "result_scope": "Per maintained landscape acre", "limitation": "Requires maintained acres. The observed rates span 43x because mowing-focused, mixed grounds, detailed multi-site, and high-touch district scopes are not interchangeable." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 23.3, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "BrightView fiscal 2025 gross profit divided by net service revenue", "source_scope": "Commercial landscaping maintenance and development combined", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "BrightView fiscal 2025 company results", "url": "https://s22.q4cdn.com/142468460/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/BrightView-8K-Q4FY25-Vf.pdf", "revenue_millions": 2672.8, "gross_profit_millions": 621.7, "gross_margin_pct": 23.3 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "BrightView fiscal 2025 gross profit divided by net service revenue", "limitation": "Commercial landscaping maintenance and development combined" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "pest_control", "label": "Pest control", "publication_status": "public_portfolio_area_comparison", "confidence": "Two official pooled public portfolios with floor-area denominators plus an executed small-stop price floor", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Austin and Alameda public IPM portfolios with an Alachua route-stop floor", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "The resolved building area supports a recurring public-portfolio comparison, with a verified annual route-stop minimum for small properties.", "scope": "public_portfolio_recurring_comparison", "scope_label": "Routine recurring general IPM comparison", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "This is public-portfolio context, not a price quote or measured market revenue. It excludes termites, bed bugs, wildlife, fumigation, emergencies, and one-time eradication." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Official public IPM portfolios normalized by covered floor area.", "formula": "max($108 annual route-stop floor, building square feet x public-portfolio rate)", "permitted_inputs": [ "resolved gross floor area" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "termite projects", "bed bugs", "wildlife", "fumigation", "emergency work", "one-time eradication" ] }, "area_service_model": { "required_input": "resolved gross floor area", "area_source": "gross_floor_area", "annual_per_sqft": { "central": 0.0116279, "high": 0.0415274 }, "annual_minimum": 108, "center_label": "Austin authorization-ceiling comparison", "high_label": "Alameda upper public comparison", "range_definition": "Two non-comparable pooled public portfolios are shown as named comparisons, not a statistical interval.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Austin integrated pest management authorization", "url": "https://austintexas.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?GID=684&GUID=E0874C98-CBC0-4042-9A01-C0F69C187CAE&ID=5431477&M=R&N=Text&Title=Legislation+Text", "covered_sqft": 43000000, "five_year_not_to_exceed": 2500000, "per_sqft_year": 0.0116279 }, { "name": "Alameda County pest-control award", "url": "https://www.acgov.org/board/bos_calendar/documents/DocsAgendaReg_07_09_19/GENERAL%20ADMINISTRATION/Regular%20Calendar/GSA_281723.pdf", "covered_sqft": 6700000, "three_year_award": 834700, "per_sqft_year": 0.0415274 }, { "name": "Alachua County pest-control bid schedule", "url": "https://alachua.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=2829E9AF-F874-46A2-8E1A-2D1D1656B33F&ID=9800200&M=F", "monthly_small_stop": 9, "annual_small_stop": 108 }, { "name": "Alachua County award record", "url": "https://alachua.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?GUID=6C5FCF58-EF2B-46A4-82F4-97464B8138CB&ID=5132990&Options=&Search=" } ], "known_limits": "Austin is a not-to-exceed authorization ceiling, not realized spend; Alameda is an awarded portfolio amount. Dividing these differently scoped records by area and years does not prove identical frequency at every square foot. Route density, frequency, pest pressure, food handling, exclusions, and emergency coverage materially change the scenario." }, "evidence": { "label": "Authorization and awarded portfolio comparisons", "basis": "Austin authorization ceiling and Alameda award with floor-area denominators, plus an executed small-stop price floor", "result_scope": "Routine recurring general IPM comparison", "limitation": "Austin is an authorization ceiling divided by covered area and years, not realized spend. Alameda is a separate award comparison, not a statistical upper bound. Frequency and scope differ; this is planning context, not a quote or measured revenue." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 52.7, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "Rollins 2024 reported gross margin", "source_scope": "Recurring residential, commercial, termite, and ancillary pest services combined", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Rollins 2024 annual report filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/84839/000153949725000918/n4107_x3ars.pdf", "gross_margin_pct": 52.7 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "Rollins 2024 reported gross margin", "limitation": "Recurring residential, commercial, termite, and ancillary pest services combined" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "solar", "label": "Solar service", "publication_status": "conditional_project_area_model", "confidence": "LBNL project-level installed prices for 211,183 residential and 3,040 nonresidential contractor-installed PV systems", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Tracking the Sun 2024 public project file", "headline": 69100, "p25": 32200, "p75": 157400, "rationale": "This is the installed price of a host-owned commercial PV project when an installation occurs, not recurring annual service revenue. This anchor is the empirical total-project installed-price distribution, separate from the capacity-multiplied per-kWdc scenario displayed by the calculator.", "scope": "conditional_solar_installation_project", "scope_label": "Commercial solar installation project, when it occurs", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Installed price is paid by the owner before incentives and can include financing fees. It does not prove one contractor retained every dollar." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "LBNL Tracking the Sun 2024 project-level public file.", "formula": "installed commercial PV kWdc x empirical 2023 installed price per watt, converted to 2025 dollars", "permitted_inputs": [ "installed commercial PV capacity in kWdc" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "building square footage", "annualization", "annual territory-revenue inference from one-time project values" ] }, "unit_service_model": { "required_input": "installed commercial PV capacity in kWdc", "unit_label": "installed kWdc", "input_label": "Installed solar capacity", "input_placeholder": "e.g. 200 kWdc", "allow_decimal": true, "default_unit_count": 21.8, "default_unit_basis": "Median capacity among 2,343 qualifying small nonresidential LBNL projects", "result_kind": "conditional_project", "annual_per_unit": { "low": 2482, "central": 3286, "high": 4469 }, "capacity_tiers": { "small_nonresidential": { "max_kwdc": 100, "annual_per_unit": { "low": 2482, "central": 3286, "high": 4469 }, "observations": 2343 }, "large_nonresidential": { "min_kwdc_exclusive": 100, "annual_per_unit": { "low": 1733, "central": 2346, "high": 3360 }, "observations": 697 } }, "range_definition": "Empirical 20th to 80th installed-price range for 2,343 host-owned, contractor-installed small nonresidential projects in 2023, expressed in 2025 dollars per kWdc. The calculator multiplies these per-kWdc prices by entered capacity; its range is not the separate empirical total-project price distribution. The legacy annual_per_unit key stores one-time installed price per kWdc, not annual revenue.", "observations": 2343, "primary_sources": [ { "name": "LBNL Tracking the Sun project data and report", "url": "https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/tracking_the_sun_2024_report.pdf", "source_sha256": "2d8ccc6f4a1bdff093470965f79f7c4c630f3196241846ecd9ad2230b820afed", "derivation_script": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/derive-lbnl-solar-projects.mjs" } ], "known_limits": "Installed price is the amount paid by the system owner before incentives. It can include financing fees and does not prove one contractor retained the entire amount. Storage, third-party-owned systems, self-installations, and projects with missing price are excluded." }, "residential_project_model": { "source": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Tracking the Sun 2024 public project file", "source_url": "https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/tracking_the_sun_2024_report.pdf", "scope_label": "Residential solar installation project, when it occurs", "result_kind": "conditional_residential_project", "observations": 211183, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p20": 18900, "median": 30100, "p80": 47200 }, "limitation": "Installed price is the amount paid by the system owner before incentives. It can include financing fees and does not prove one contractor retained the entire amount. Storage, third-party-owned systems, self-installations, and projects with missing price are excluded." }, "solar_om_context": { "source": "NREL 2024 Annual Technology Baseline", "system_related_annual_om_per_kwdc": 15.5, "total_annual_om_per_kwdc": 19, "source_url": "https://atb.nlr.gov/electricity/2024/commercial_pv", "publication_role": "secondary_cost_context_only" }, "evidence": { "label": "Project-level installed-price records", "basis": "LBNL project-level installed prices for 211,183 residential and 3,040 nonresidential contractor-installed PV systems", "result_scope": "Commercial solar installation project, when it occurs", "limitation": "Owner-paid installed price before incentives; financing fees may be included. Capacity x per-kWdc prices defines this scenario, separate from the downloaded total-project distribution. It is a one-time project, not annual revenue or proof one contractor receives every dollar." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 38.3, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "SUNation Energy 2025 reported gross profit divided by revenue", "source_scope": "Residential and commercial solar installation and service combined, not margin measured on one LBNL project", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "SUNation Energy 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22701/000002270126000003/sune-20251231x10k.htm", "revenue": 71905527, "gross_profit": 27544213, "gross_margin_pct": 38.3 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "SUNation Energy 2025 reported gross profit divided by revenue", "limitation": "Residential and commercial solar installation and service combined, not margin measured on one LBNL project" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "controls_bas", "label": "Controls / building automation", "publication_status": "public_bid_labor_scope_builder", "confidence": "One official responsive public bid with exact regular and after-hours labor rates", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Garland ISD official BAS bid tab", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "Public annual BAS line items lack a proven covered-building or controller denominator. The calculator therefore builds only the labor scope the user supplies and does not invent default hours.", "scope": "labor_only_scope_builder", "scope_label": "Planned BAS labor only", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires planned service hours. Materials, software, servers, controllers, annual PM, and emergency project scope are excluded." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Official responsive public BAS bid labor rates.", "formula": "planned regular onsite hours x $140 + planned after-hours x $194", "permitted_inputs": [ "planned regular onsite BAS hours", "planned after-hours BAS hours" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "building square footage", "default hours", "materials", "server and software lines", "annual PM lines without covered inventory" ] }, "labor_scope_model": { "planning_scenario": { "regular_hours": 24, "after_hours": 0, "disclosure": "Starts with 24 scheduled onsite hours per year as an editable planning scenario. The source supports the hourly rates, not the assumed hours." }, "inputs": [ { "key": "regular_hours", "label": "Planned regular onsite hours / year", "placeholder": "e.g. 24 hours", "hourly_rate": 140 }, { "key": "after_hours", "label": "Planned after-hours hours / year", "placeholder": "e.g. 4 hours", "hourly_rate": 194, "optional": true } ], "range_definition": "No range or default is published from one public bid.", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Garland ISD controls and building automation bid tab", "url": "https://garlandisd.net/connect/how-do-business-us/bid-tabulations?page=0", "source_document": "Garland ISD RFP 214-23-03 HVAC Control Service and Repairs bid tabulation, listed and linked from the official bid-tabulations page.", "regular_hourly_rate": 140, "after_hours_hourly_rate": 194 } ], "known_limits": "This is a scope builder from one district bid, not a national rate or typical annual building value. The bid publishes fixed annual server and PM lines but no covered controller or building denominator, so those lines are withheld." }, "evidence": { "label": "Public labor-rate bid", "basis": "One official responsive public bid with exact regular and after-hours labor rates", "result_scope": "Planned BAS labor only", "limitation": "Requires planned service hours. Materials, software, servers, controllers, annual PM, and emergency project scope are excluded." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 37.9, "high_margin_pct": 53, "benchmark_kind": "level_recurring_service_agreements", "source": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "source_url": "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "source_scope": "Recurring service agreement proxy for the user-built BAS labor scope. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%.", "evidence": { "label": "Level measured recurring-service benchmark", "basis": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "limitation": "Recurring service agreement proxy for the user-built BAS labor scope. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context.", "high_margin_interpretation": "editable_planning_high_not_measured_percentile" } }, { "trade": "general_contracting", "label": "General contracting", "publication_status": "conditional_project_area_model", "confidence": "Five competitively awarded 2026 interior-renovation projects with exact renovated-area denominators", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Five Loudoun County interior-renovation awards", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "General contracting is episodic. The calculator requires the renovation scope area and returns a conditional project value, not ordinary annual building revenue.", "scope": "conditional_interior_renovation_project", "scope_label": "Interior-renovation contract, when this scope exists", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires renovation-scope square feet. Never substitute total building area, annualize the result, or multiply it across a territory." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Competitively awarded public interior-renovation contracts normalized by renovated gross square feet.", "formula": "user-entered renovation scope square feet x $230.30 per renovated square foot", "permitted_inputs": [ "renovation scope square feet" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "total building square feet", "annualization", "annual territory-revenue inference from one-time project values" ] }, "unit_service_model": { "required_input": "renovation scope square feet", "default_unit_count": 10000, "default_unit_basis": "Editable 10,000 sqft project scenario, not an estimate of this building or a population median", "unit_label": "renovation scope sqft", "input_label": "Renovation scope area", "input_placeholder": "e.g. 10,000 sqft", "result_kind": "conditional_project", "annual_per_unit": { "low": 76.7, "central": 230.3, "high": 354.47 }, "range_definition": "Observed sample middle half across five awards, not a confidence interval.", "observations": 5, "primary_sources": [ { "name": "101 Blue Seal Drive project page", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1061", "scope_sqft": 37137, "award": 895000, "per_sqft": 24.1 }, { "name": "101 Blue Seal Drive award notice", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/219751" }, { "name": "Lakeside III project page", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1085", "scope_sqft": 9281, "award": 711871, "per_sqft": 76.7 }, { "name": "Lakeside III award notice", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/221765" }, { "name": "41975 Loudoun Center project page", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1076", "scope_sqft": 22145, "award": 5100000, "per_sqft": 230.3 }, { "name": "41975 Loudoun Center award notice", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/220743" }, { "name": "908 Trailview project page", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1078", "scope_sqft": 10297, "award": 3650000, "per_sqft": 354.47 }, { "name": "908 Trailview award notice", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/220697" }, { "name": "751 Miller PPE facility project page", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1058", "scope_sqft": 8000, "award": 6569000, "per_sqft": 821.13 }, { "name": "751 Miller PPE facility award notice", "url": "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/219392" } ], "known_limits": "All observations are one county and year, with public prevailing-wage and specification scope. Project intensity varies widely. The result is conditional contract value, not annual revenue, a private-market quote, or profit." }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Room addition, remodel, garage, porch, or other major interior project", "jobtype_codes": [ 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 31 ], "unweighted_projects": 4099, "weighted_projects": 12144926, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 3600, "median": 8900, "p75": 19900 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 5.24, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 980 }, "evidence": { "label": "Competitively awarded conditional projects", "basis": "Five competitively awarded 2026 interior-renovation projects with exact renovated-area denominators", "result_scope": "Interior-renovation contract, when this scope exists", "limitation": "Requires renovation-scope square feet. Never substitute total building area, annualize the result, or multiply it across a territory." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 13.9, "low_margin_pct": 11.7, "high_margin_pct": 16.1, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "Median of two 2025 public general-contractor gross margins", "source_scope": "Company-wide public construction, not a margin observed on the five renovation awards", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Granite Construction full-year 2025 company results", "url": "https://investor.graniteconstruction.com/news-and-events/press-releases/granite-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results", "revenue_millions": 4424.379, "gross_profit_millions": 711.216, "gross_margin_pct": 16.1 }, { "name": "Tutor Perini 2025 Form 10-K filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000028/tpc-20251231.htm", "revenue_millions": 5543.039, "gross_profit_millions": 647.515, "gross_margin_pct": 11.7 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "Median of two 2025 public general-contractor gross margins", "limitation": "Company-wide public construction, not a margin observed on the five renovation awards" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "restoration", "label": "Restoration", "publication_status": "conditional_project_area_model", "confidence": "Three public award records plus one university SAMPLE procurement report entry, normalized to 2025 dollars. This is a conditional reference, not an independently confirmed award distribution.", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Three public award records plus one university SAMPLE procurement report entry", "headline": 35358, "p25": 25748, "p75": 85667, "rationale": "This is a conditional project-value reference when remediation or restoration work occurs, not recurring annual revenue.", "scope": "conditional_restoration_project_award", "scope_label": "Restoration project reference, when work occurs", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "The observations cover different causes and scopes across public facilities. The university SAMPLE report entry is not independently confirmed as an executed award. The interpolated range is conditional reference context, not a confirmed award distribution, quote, annual expectation, or event probability." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Three public award records, one university SAMPLE procurement report entry, and BLS CPI-U annual averages.", "formula": "Award amount converted from its source year to 2025 dollars", "permitted_inputs": [], "excluded_inputs": [ "annual incidence", "annual territory-revenue inference from one-time project values", "contents claims", "private and uninsured losses", "all restoration causes" ] }, "conditional_project_model": { "observations": [ { "project": "Middlesex College emergency asbestos, lead, and mold remediation", "year": 2011, "award": 20000, "cpi": 224.939, "source_url": "https://www.middlesexcollege.edu/about/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/08/minutes-2011-05.pdf", "award_2025_usd": 28625 }, { "project": "Edwards Air Force Base emergency water damage restoration", "year": 2025, "award": 42089.6, "cpi": 321.943, "source_url": "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA930125F0206_9700_FA930123A0005_9700", "award_2025_usd": 42090 }, { "project": "Tennessee State University mold remediation", "year": 2017, "award": 13031.37, "cpi": 245.12, "source_url": "https://www.tnstate.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Sample-Diversity-Report.pdf", "source_record": { "page": 1, "procurement": "Mold remediation", "award_date": "2017-10-26", "vendor": "Belfor, Inc.", "contract": "Statewide Contract No. 817", "document_role": "Sample procurement report published by the university; not independent transaction confirmation" }, "award_2025_usd": 17116 }, { "project": "Edwards Air Force Base emergency water damage restoration", "year": 2025, "award": 216397, "cpi": 321.943, "source_url": "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA930125F0126_9700_FA930123A0005_9700", "award_2025_usd": 216397 } ], "award_2025_usd": { "p25": 25748, "median": 35358, "p75": 85667 }, "range_definition": "Interpolated 25th to 75th percentile range across four heterogeneous reference amounts (three public award records plus one university SAMPLE procurement report entry), not an independently confirmed award distribution or a confidence interval.", "source_revision": { "date": "2026-10-06", "reason": "The prior mold-remediation amount belonged to the adjacent gas-cylinder-leasing row. The first actual mold-remediation row is used; the previous entry is preserved here for auditability.", "previous_entry": { "project": "Tennessee State University mold remediation", "year": 2017, "award": 18058.48, "cpi": 245.12, "award_2025_usd": 23718, "source_path": "www.tnstate.edu/procurement/severance-documents/Sample%20Diversity%20Report.pdf", "correct_category": "Gas cylinder leasing" }, "verification_record": "data/source-verification/tsu-procurement-row-repair-2026-10-06.json" } }, "conditional_event_model": { "event_label": "Paid nonresidential flood building claim", "observations": 12656, "inflation_year": 2025, "occupancy_codes": [ 4, 6, 18 ], "excluded_occupancy_codes": { "17": "nonresidential mobile or manufactured home", "19": "one nonresidential unit inside a multi-unit building" }, "filters": { "loss_years": [ 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "amount_paid_on_building_claim": "greater than 0", "claim_status": "completed loss years only" }, "cpi_u_annual_average": { "2020": 258.811, "2021": 270.97, "2022": 292.655, "2023": 304.702, "2024": 313.689, "2025": 321.943 }, "paid_building_claim_2025_usd": { "p25": 19741.44, "median": 59398.49, "p75": 149053.51 }, "primary_sources": [ { "name": "OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3 dataset metadata", "url": "https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/OpenFemaDataSets?$filter=identifier+eq+%27openfema-95%27", "source_artifact": "NfipClaimsV3.parquet" }, { "name": "OpenFEMA occupancyType code dictionary", "url": "https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/DataSetCodes?$filter=datasetId%20eq%20%27openfema-95%27%20and%20fieldName%20eq%20%27occupancyType%27&$top=100" }, { "name": "BLS public CPI-U time-series response", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/CUUR0000SA0?startyear=2020&endyear=2025", "series": "CUUR0000SA0" } ], "publication_role": "secondary_claim_budget_context_only", "known_limits": "NFIP policyholders are geographically and risk selected. The upper tail is policy-limit censored, private and uninsured losses are absent, and a paid claim is not a contractor invoice. The distribution cannot identify all-building annual incidence." }, "residential_project_model": { "label": "Extensive disaster repair", "jobtype_codes": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ], "unweighted_projects": 459, "weighted_projects": 1568317, "conditional_project_2025_usd": { "p25": 7700, "median": 15400, "p75": 28500 }, "annual_projects_per_100_owner_occupied_single_family_homes": 0.68, "annual_project_spend_per_owner_occupied_single_family_home_2025_usd": 189 }, "evidence": { "label": "Public award records and university sample report", "basis": "Three public award records plus one university SAMPLE procurement report entry, normalized to 2025 dollars. This is a conditional reference, not an independently confirmed award distribution.", "result_scope": "Restoration project reference, when work occurs", "limitation": "The observations cover different causes and scopes across public facilities. The university SAMPLE report entry is not independently confirmed as an executed award. The interpolated range is conditional reference context, not a confirmed award distribution, quote, annual expectation, or event probability." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 33.8, "benchmark_kind": "public_company_trade_proxy", "source": "Centuri 2024 to 2025 storm-restoration gross profit divided by revenue", "source_scope": "Utility storm restoration, not property remediation or one public award", "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Centuri 2025 annual report filed with the SEC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981599/000198159926000048/ars2025.pdf", "revenue_2024_2025_millions": 176.926, "gross_profit_2024_2025_millions": 59.773, "gross_margin_pct": 33.8 } ], "evidence": { "label": "Public-company trade proxy", "basis": "Centuri 2024 to 2025 storm-restoration gross profit divided by revenue", "limitation": "Utility storm restoration, not property remediation or one public award" }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context." } }, { "trade": "doors_docks", "label": "Commercial doors / docks", "publication_status": "public_contract_unit_model", "confidence": "One awarded public portfolio covering 124 overhead doors, hangar doors, and rolling gates", "annual_revenue_anchor": { "source": "Village of Schaumburg awarded overhead-door maintenance renewal", "headline": null, "p25": null, "p75": null, "rationale": "There is no generic building total. The scheduled-maintenance reference requires the actual covered door and gate count. Emergency repairs remain separate because the public contract budgets them as an allowance, not earned recurring revenue.", "scope": "inventory_scaled_service", "scope_label": "Per covered door or gate, scheduled maintenance only", "comparable_with_total_account_revenue": false, "scope_warning": "Requires a real covered door and gate count. This is scheduled preventive maintenance from one public portfolio, not total door and dock account revenue." }, "adjustment_policy": { "source": "Official awarded public maintenance renewal normalized by covered overhead door, hangar door, and rolling gate count.", "formula": "covered door and gate count x $141.29 scheduled preventive maintenance per unit per year", "permitted_inputs": [ "covered overhead door, hangar door, and rolling gate count" ], "excluded_inputs": [ "square footage", "building type", "emergency repair allowance", "replacement work" ] }, "unit_service_model": { "required_input": "covered overhead door, hangar door, and rolling gate count", "default_unit_count": 8, "default_unit_basis": "Editable eight-unit planning scenario, not an inferred building inventory", "unit_label": "doors and gates", "input_label": "Covered overhead doors and gates", "input_placeholder": "e.g. 8 doors or gates", "annual_per_unit": { "central": 141.29 }, "range_definition": "No range is published because the evidence is one awarded portfolio. The calculator shows the observed unit rate without inventing uncertainty bounds.", "observations": 1, "units": 124, "primary_sources": [ { "name": "Village of Schaumburg United Door and Dock contract renewal", "url": "https://schaumburg.novusagenda.com/AgendaPublic/CoverSheet.aspx?ItemID=23060&MeetingID=3634", "units": 124, "annual_preventive_maintenance": 17520, "per_unit": 141.29, "excluded_emergency_repair_allowance": 65500 } ], "known_limits": "One municipal portfolio is not a national distribution. Door type, cycle count, access, inspection scope, loading-dock equipment, parts, and emergency coverage change revenue. The $65,500 emergency-repair allowance is excluded because an allowance is not realized recurring spend." }, "evidence": { "label": "Public unit-priced service contracts", "basis": "One awarded public portfolio covering 124 overhead doors, hangar doors, and rolling gates", "result_scope": "Per covered door or gate, scheduled maintenance only", "limitation": "Requires a real covered door and gate count. This is scheduled preventive maintenance from one public portfolio, not total door and dock account revenue." }, "gross_profit_model": { "default_margin_pct": 37.9, "high_margin_pct": 53, "benchmark_kind": "level_recurring_service_agreements", "source": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "source_url": "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "source_scope": "Recurring service agreement proxy for scheduled door and gate maintenance. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%.", "evidence": { "label": "Level measured recurring-service benchmark", "basis": "Level service-agreement gross margin, 259 companies with at least $10,000 of service-agreement revenue", "limitation": "Recurring service agreement proxy for scheduled door and gate maintenance. The retained 53% high is an editable planning input, not the canonical service-agreement p75 of 53.5%." }, "editable": true, "formula": "gross profit = displayed contractor revenue x gross margin", "definition": "Gross profit is revenue less direct labor, materials, subcontractors, and direct equipment. It excludes office overhead, sales and administration, debt, taxes, and owner distributions.", "guardrail": "Apply only to a displayed amount that represents contractor revenue. Do not apply to claim budgets, total facility sustainment context, or O&M cost context.", "high_margin_interpretation": "editable_planning_high_not_measured_percentile" } } ], "content_digest": "64e5031dc4cd50cb" }