{
  "dataset": "Annual HVAC contractor revenue per active customer building, by building segment",
  "version": "1.0.5",
  "generated_by": "skills/revenue-estimator-rnd/build-coefficients.mjs",
  "attribution": "Level",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "unit": "One HVAC/mechanical contractor’s annual billed revenue from one building, in US dollars",
  "trade_scope": "HVAC / mechanical only. Contractors are conservatively inferred from company name and dominant serviced-asset mix, and confident conflicts are withheld. Segment ordering is measurably trade-specific, so these coefficients must not be applied to another trade.",
  "trade_scope_evidence": {
    "native_trade_field_available": false,
    "classifier_policy": "Use matching name and asset labels, an unopposed name label, or a dominant asset label at 60% or more. Withhold confident conflicts.",
    "combined": {
      "row_type": "cohort",
      "classifier": "combined",
      "trade": "hvac_mechanical",
      "contractors": 197,
      "buildings": 40550,
      "p25": 14258,
      "median": 23465,
      "p75": 40278,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 0.0361,
      "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.0319,
      "train_contractors": 193,
      "train_p25": 14596,
      "train_median": 23525,
      "train_p75": 40026,
      "test_contractors": 178,
      "test_buildings": 8112,
      "test_median": 22073,
      "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half"
    },
    "name_only_sensitivity": {
      "row_type": "cohort",
      "classifier": "name_only",
      "trade": "hvac_mechanical",
      "contractors": 132,
      "buildings": 28458,
      "p25": 13796,
      "median": 23826,
      "p75": 38751,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 0.0515,
      "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.0472,
      "train_contractors": 130,
      "train_p25": 14689,
      "train_median": 24171,
      "train_p75": 38300,
      "test_contractors": 118,
      "test_buildings": 5659,
      "test_median": 22281,
      "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half"
    },
    "asset_only_sensitivity": {
      "row_type": "cohort",
      "classifier": "asset_only",
      "trade": "hvac_mechanical",
      "contractors": 161,
      "buildings": 30656,
      "p25": 13512,
      "median": 23308,
      "p75": 41971,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 0.0478,
      "max_loo_mean_shift": 0.0162,
      "train_contractors": 156,
      "train_p25": 13887,
      "train_median": 23507,
      "train_p75": 41260,
      "test_contractors": 143,
      "test_buildings": 6163,
      "test_median": 22175,
      "holdout_result": "within_train_middle_half"
    },
    "interpretation": "The generic HVAC median changes by less than 3% across the combined, name-only, and asset-only cohorts. The combined cohort clears contractor diversity, single-firm influence, and held-out checks."
  },
  "method": {
    "window": "Building must show at least 183 days between its first and last completed job; revenue is annualized on the actual window, not a calendar year.",
    "weighting": "Contractor-weighted. Each contractor holding at least 5 buildings of a segment contributes one average, so no single firm can carry a cell. The published headline is the MEDIAN of those contractor averages, not their mean: the mean is pulled up by a right tail of outlier firms in every segment, and a contractor checking the figure against his own book would recognise the median and reject the mean. The mean is published alongside, labelled, because it is the right figure for valuing a whole territory of buildings.",
    "uncertainty": "The reported standard error belongs to the mean across contractors and understates true uncertainty, because contractor averages are not independent draws: one contractor’s entire book of a segment shares his pricing, market and customer mix. Splitting the contractors into two independent halves moves individual cell values considerably more than the standard error predicts, while the rank ordering of segments replicates strongly. Read the ordering and the tier as the finding, and any single point estimate as approximate.",
    "exclusions": [
      "Non-operating (sandbox/training) tenants excluded by name.",
      "Contractors not conservatively classified as HVAC/mechanical are excluded. Conflicting high-confidence name and serviced-asset labels are withheld.",
      "Records averaging under $300 per job excluded as parts-counter sales.",
      "Invoices collapsed to one row per job before joining, because one job can carry hundreds of invoices."
    ],
    "segment_source": "Contractor-entered building type, normalized with an ordered regex taxonomy. Multifamily is tested before single-family residential so apartment complexes are not folded into houses.",
    "capital_vs_service": "Jobs of $15,000 or more are counted as replacement/capital work; jobs under $5,000 as routine service. Jobs between the two are deliberately in neither bucket: the split is a floor and a ceiling, not an exhaustive dichotomy.",
    "publication_floors": "Standard publication requires at least 10 contributing contractors, at least 25 buildings, and less than 20% leave-one-contractor-out movement in the mean across contractors. A large-sample lane also publishes a median when there are at least 50 contractors and 1000 buildings, the held-out result remains inside the fit band, and mean influence is below 25%.",
    "framing": "The figure pools relationships that persisted and relationships that ended. Buildings whose relationship ended before the extract bill 36% less on the mean, so this is the expectation for an average new account including churn, not what a good account is worth. Filtering to currently-active buildings inflates every segment by roughly a third."
  },
  "known_limits": [
    "This is what ONE contractor bills from a building, not the building’s total spend across all vendors. Total cross-vendor spend is not recoverable from this data.",
    "Square footage explains only about 9% of the variance in what a building spends (r-squared 0.093), and dividing by area adds 19% variance, which is why no $/sqft figure is published here.",
    "Within one contractor’s own book of one building type the per-building band is still about 4.7x, so a single-building estimate is a range and never a point.",
    "Building age materially changes capital work in the segments that clear publication gates, while routine service does not show a reliable age relationship.",
    "Single-family is an active-account benchmark. Every included property has at least 183 days between its first and last completed job, so it must not be multiplied by the full U.S. housing stock or described as average spending across every home."
  ],
  "external_context": {
    "purpose": "These public sources establish the scale and equipment exposure of single-family housing. They do not determine or independently validate Level's revenue coefficient.",
    "sources": [
      {
        "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "dataset": "2023 American Housing Survey, General Housing Data",
        "finding": "85.261 million occupied single-family detached housing units",
        "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/data/interactive/ahstablecreator.html"
      },
      {
        "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "dataset": "2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey",
        "finding": "90% of single-family detached homes used air-conditioning equipment",
        "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52558"
      }
    ]
  },
  "segments": [
    {
      "segment": "industrial",
      "label": "Industrial / manufacturing",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 43325,
      "mean_across_contractors": 56817,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.31,
      "standard_error": 7760,
      "precision_pct": 13.7,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 46,
      "buildings": 1129,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 10.5,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 12.8,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 9.6,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 23284,
        "median": 43325,
        "p75": 71817
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 5346,
        "median": 13734,
        "p75": 38382,
        "p90": 90513
      },
      "tier": 1,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 36292,
        "fit_contractors": 41,
        "holdout_mean": 29818,
        "holdout_contractors": 24,
        "holdout_buildings": 205,
        "relative_error_pct": -17.8,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 26339,
        "capital_old": 29252,
        "capital_ratio": 1.11,
        "service_newer": 12757,
        "service_old": 14948,
        "service_ratio": 1.17,
        "contractors_newer": 16,
        "contractors_old": 32,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 28.6,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 46.7,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 27369,
          "contractors": 14,
          "buildings": 111,
          "sqft_max": 24605
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 47362,
          "contractors": 20,
          "buildings": 118,
          "sqft_max": 86268
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 62893,
          "contractors": 18,
          "buildings": 111,
          "sqft_max": 2480012
        },
        "large_over_small": 2.3,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": true,
        "multiplier_small": 0.58,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.33
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "hospitality",
      "label": "Hospitality",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 42333,
      "mean_across_contractors": 56312,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.33,
      "standard_error": 11263,
      "precision_pct": 20,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 16,
      "buildings": 211,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 17.3,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 22.7,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 15.9,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 24434,
        "median": 42333,
        "p75": 68988
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 7638,
        "median": 23230,
        "p75": 45402,
        "p90": 98379
      },
      "tier": 1,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 27772,
        "fit_contractors": 12,
        "holdout_mean": 49264,
        "holdout_contractors": 7,
        "holdout_buildings": 32,
        "relative_error_pct": 77.4,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 8752,
        "capital_old": 3248,
        "capital_ratio": 0.37,
        "service_newer": 18162,
        "service_old": 7102,
        "service_ratio": 0.39,
        "contractors_newer": 7,
        "contractors_old": 2,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 100,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 52.4,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 25846,
          "contractors": 4,
          "buildings": 25,
          "sqft_max": 45136
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 70582,
          "contractors": 4,
          "buildings": 25,
          "sqft_max": 92520
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 95451,
          "contractors": 4,
          "buildings": 22,
          "sqft_max": 425823
        },
        "large_over_small": 3.69,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.37,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.35
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "education",
      "label": "Education",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 29120,
      "mean_across_contractors": 35037,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.2,
      "standard_error": 3203,
      "precision_pct": 9.1,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 52,
      "buildings": 1542,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 19.2,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 13.7,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 4.2,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 18391,
        "median": 29120,
        "p75": 44102
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 6276,
        "median": 15943,
        "p75": 36448,
        "p90": 72083
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 29321,
        "fit_contractors": 49,
        "holdout_mean": 25661,
        "holdout_contractors": 36,
        "holdout_buildings": 300,
        "relative_error_pct": -12.5,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 0,
        "capital_old": 4201,
        "capital_ratio": null,
        "service_newer": 11575,
        "service_old": 11606,
        "service_ratio": 1,
        "contractors_newer": 2,
        "contractors_old": 7,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 48.3,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": null,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 15838,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 12,
          "sqft_max": 21705
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 16905,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 12,
          "sqft_max": 59620
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 60166,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 14,
          "sqft_max": 724350
        },
        "large_over_small": 3.8,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.94,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 3.56
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "multifamily",
      "label": "Multifamily",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 26356,
      "mean_across_contractors": 33840,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.28,
      "standard_error": 4746,
      "precision_pct": 14,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 40,
      "buildings": 1945,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 25.1,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 42.2,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 7.3,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 10224,
        "median": 26356,
        "p75": 44142
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 3050,
        "median": 7987,
        "p75": 18906,
        "p90": 45500
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 22744,
        "fit_contractors": 36,
        "holdout_mean": 22926,
        "holdout_contractors": 21,
        "holdout_buildings": 388,
        "relative_error_pct": 0.8,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 10643,
        "capital_old": 26537,
        "capital_ratio": 2.49,
        "service_newer": 15302,
        "service_old": 12086,
        "service_ratio": 0.79,
        "contractors_newer": 10,
        "contractors_old": 10,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 51.7,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 75.7,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 9557,
          "contractors": 5,
          "buildings": 154,
          "sqft_max": 9814
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 21299,
          "contractors": 9,
          "buildings": 150,
          "sqft_max": 47354
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 43602,
          "contractors": 10,
          "buildings": 143,
          "sqft_max": 990000
        },
        "large_over_small": 4.56,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.45,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 2.05
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "government",
      "label": "Government",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 25653,
      "mean_across_contractors": 32665,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.27,
      "standard_error": 4449,
      "precision_pct": 13.6,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 20,
      "buildings": 410,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 15.9,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 14.4,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 6.3,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 16508,
        "median": 25653,
        "p75": 43837
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 5459,
        "median": 12662,
        "p75": 31844,
        "p90": 87923
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 23018,
        "fit_contractors": 18,
        "holdout_mean": 19597,
        "holdout_contractors": 11,
        "holdout_buildings": 82,
        "relative_error_pct": -14.9,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 15588,
        "capital_old": 29083,
        "capital_ratio": 1.87,
        "service_newer": 9315,
        "service_old": 8844,
        "service_ratio": 0.95,
        "contractors_newer": 2,
        "contractors_old": 5,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 45.8,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 88.5,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 18189,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 9,
          "sqft_max": 13408
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 26842,
          "contractors": 1,
          "buildings": 6,
          "sqft_max": 30876
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 18800,
          "contractors": 1,
          "buildings": 4,
          "sqft_max": 306000
        },
        "large_over_small": 1.03,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.68,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 0.7
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "worship",
      "label": "Worship",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 25370,
      "mean_across_contractors": 33730,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.33,
      "standard_error": 9035,
      "precision_pct": 26.8,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 12,
      "buildings": 217,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 29.7,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 47,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 18.9,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 8950,
        "median": 25370,
        "p75": 34126
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 4663,
        "median": 9925,
        "p75": 20024,
        "p90": 42256
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 6344,
        "capital_old": 5930,
        "capital_ratio": 0.93,
        "service_newer": 11253,
        "service_old": 6276,
        "service_ratio": 0.56,
        "contractors_newer": 2,
        "contractors_old": 2,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 100,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 100,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 10011,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 10,
          "sqft_max": 16608
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 24058,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 8,
          "sqft_max": 28769
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 21778,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 10,
          "sqft_max": 436465
        },
        "large_over_small": 2.18,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.42,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 0.91
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "mixed_use",
      "label": "Mixed use",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 24562,
      "mean_across_contractors": 25814,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.05,
      "standard_error": 4103,
      "precision_pct": 15.9,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 22,
      "buildings": 562,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 31.6,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 24,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 10.4,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 10890,
        "median": 24562,
        "p75": 30430
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 4131,
        "median": 10456,
        "p75": 27665,
        "p90": 62724
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 21419,
        "fit_contractors": 18,
        "holdout_mean": 18276,
        "holdout_contractors": 9,
        "holdout_buildings": 93,
        "relative_error_pct": -14.7,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 11631,
        "capital_old": 8600,
        "capital_ratio": 0.74,
        "service_newer": 14968,
        "service_old": 8962,
        "service_ratio": 0.6,
        "contractors_newer": 8,
        "contractors_old": 12,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 26.3,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 29.3,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 9487,
          "contractors": 7,
          "buildings": 51,
          "sqft_max": 15780
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 29104,
          "contractors": 7,
          "buildings": 60,
          "sqft_max": 65000
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 57620,
          "contractors": 4,
          "buildings": 53,
          "sqft_max": 1346113
        },
        "large_over_small": 6.07,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.33,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.98
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "office",
      "label": "Office",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 21088,
      "mean_across_contractors": 31271,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.48,
      "standard_error": 4012,
      "precision_pct": 12.8,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 65,
      "buildings": 2167,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 12.5,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 13.4,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 6.4,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 9990,
        "median": 21088,
        "p75": 37360
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 4375,
        "median": 11271,
        "p75": 28079,
        "p90": 65781
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 20188,
        "fit_contractors": 58,
        "holdout_mean": 17719,
        "holdout_contractors": 33,
        "holdout_buildings": 400,
        "relative_error_pct": -12.2,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 8970,
        "capital_old": 15646,
        "capital_ratio": 1.74,
        "service_newer": 9690,
        "service_old": 8921,
        "service_ratio": 0.92,
        "contractors_newer": 28,
        "contractors_old": 40,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 28,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 38.7,
        "ships_age_multiplier": true,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 18795,
          "contractors": 32,
          "buildings": 269,
          "sqft_max": 27180
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 26484,
          "contractors": 22,
          "buildings": 256,
          "sqft_max": 90941
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 49618,
          "contractors": 23,
          "buildings": 270,
          "sqft_max": 1486375
        },
        "large_over_small": 2.64,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": true,
        "multiplier_small": 0.71,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.87
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "healthcare",
      "label": "Healthcare",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 20914,
      "mean_across_contractors": 36782,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.76,
      "standard_error": 4798,
      "precision_pct": 13,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 57,
      "buildings": 1339,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 13.9,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 12.3,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 5.3,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 12081,
        "median": 20914,
        "p75": 45460
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 5156,
        "median": 12389,
        "p75": 30068,
        "p90": 76931
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 22158,
        "fit_contractors": 43,
        "holdout_mean": 24155,
        "holdout_contractors": 31,
        "holdout_buildings": 259,
        "relative_error_pct": 9,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 11020,
        "capital_old": 11882,
        "capital_ratio": 1.08,
        "service_newer": 12156,
        "service_old": 13257,
        "service_ratio": 1.09,
        "contractors_newer": 29,
        "contractors_old": 22,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 44.4,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 28.2,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 23321,
          "contractors": 17,
          "buildings": 133,
          "sqft_max": 14045
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 22337,
          "contractors": 15,
          "buildings": 125,
          "sqft_max": 47262
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 36575,
          "contractors": 20,
          "buildings": 126,
          "sqft_max": 1736513
        },
        "large_over_small": 1.57,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 1.04,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.64
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "warehouse",
      "label": "Warehouse / distribution",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 13012,
      "mean_across_contractors": 15585,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.2,
      "standard_error": 3068,
      "precision_pct": 19.7,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 10,
      "buildings": 166,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 21.4,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 24.7,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 12,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 8193,
        "median": 13012,
        "p75": 21211
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 3021,
        "median": 5836,
        "p75": 15680,
        "p90": 27124
      },
      "tier": 3,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 13090,
        "fit_contractors": 10,
        "holdout_mean": 4662,
        "holdout_contractors": 5,
        "holdout_buildings": 26,
        "relative_error_pct": -64.4,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 1371,
        "capital_old": 1025,
        "capital_ratio": 0.75,
        "service_newer": 5318,
        "service_old": 6251,
        "service_ratio": 1.18,
        "contractors_newer": 4,
        "contractors_old": 6,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 52.2,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 57.8,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 7791,
          "contractors": 5,
          "buildings": 17,
          "sqft_max": 30886
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 5362,
          "contractors": 1,
          "buildings": 15,
          "sqft_max": 143731
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 7741,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 18,
          "sqft_max": 719200
        },
        "large_over_small": 0.99,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 1.45,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.44
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "restaurant",
      "label": "Restaurant",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 12645,
      "mean_across_contractors": 16487,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.3,
      "standard_error": 3136,
      "precision_pct": 19,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 21,
      "buildings": 505,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 14.6,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 17.2,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 14.6,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 7545,
        "median": 12645,
        "p75": 17630
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 4151,
        "median": 9506,
        "p75": 17275,
        "p90": 34268
      },
      "tier": 4,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 12604,
        "fit_contractors": 20,
        "holdout_mean": 14463,
        "holdout_contractors": 12,
        "holdout_buildings": 82,
        "relative_error_pct": 14.7,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 6141,
        "capital_old": 3390,
        "capital_ratio": 0.55,
        "service_newer": 11350,
        "service_old": 6327,
        "service_ratio": 0.56,
        "contractors_newer": 10,
        "contractors_old": 11,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 40.8,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 62.1,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 10468,
          "contractors": 5,
          "buildings": 62,
          "sqft_max": 2793
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 16137,
          "contractors": 5,
          "buildings": 45,
          "sqft_max": 6246
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 23635,
          "contractors": 9,
          "buildings": 53,
          "sqft_max": 808070
        },
        "large_over_small": 2.26,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.65,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.46
      }
    },
    {
      "segment": "single_family_resi",
      "label": "Single-family residential",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 6573,
      "mean_across_contractors": 8708,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.32,
      "standard_error": 1393,
      "precision_pct": 16,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 34,
      "buildings": 2013,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 11,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 13.8,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 12.6,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 4386,
        "median": 6573,
        "p75": 9863
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 1204,
        "median": 2718,
        "p75": 6454,
        "p90": 14530
      },
      "tier": 4,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 6489,
        "fit_contractors": 32,
        "holdout_mean": 5551,
        "holdout_contractors": 25,
        "holdout_buildings": 373,
        "relative_error_pct": -14.5,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 3256,
        "capital_old": 2727,
        "capital_ratio": 0.84,
        "service_newer": 5176,
        "service_old": 3313,
        "service_ratio": 0.64,
        "contractors_newer": 6,
        "contractors_old": 7,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 51.5,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 63.3,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 7911,
          "contractors": 5,
          "buildings": 40,
          "sqft_max": 8665
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 10077,
          "contractors": 6,
          "buildings": 40,
          "sqft_max": 70000
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 12644,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 41,
          "sqft_max": 662692
        },
        "large_over_small": 1.6,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.78,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "excluded_cells": [
    {
      "segment": "grocery_cstore",
      "label": "Grocery / convenience store",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 69205,
      "mean_across_contractors": 71198,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.03,
      "standard_error": 16687,
      "precision_pct": 23.4,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 4,
      "buildings": 183,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 51.7,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 50.3,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 20,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 32556,
        "median": 69205,
        "p75": 72592
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 22606,
        "median": 39848,
        "p75": 101117,
        "p90": 148025
      },
      "tier": 1,
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 6437,
        "capital_old": 13608,
        "capital_ratio": 2.11,
        "service_newer": 39088,
        "service_old": 38568,
        "service_ratio": 0.99,
        "contractors_newer": 3,
        "contractors_old": 4,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 59.6,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 13.2,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 57624,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 27,
          "sqft_max": 48302
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 68853,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 27,
          "sqft_max": 133818
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 60707,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 27,
          "sqft_max": 219323
        },
        "large_over_small": 1.05,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": false,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 0.84,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 0.88
      },
      "excluded_because": [
        "only 4 contractors (floor 10)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "segment": "data_center",
      "label": "Data center",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 54356,
      "mean_across_contractors": 76236,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.4,
      "standard_error": 32831,
      "precision_pct": 43.1,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 6,
      "buildings": 122,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 51.1,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 38.5,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 41.5,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 31039,
        "median": 54356,
        "p75": 72549
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 7884,
        "median": 16752,
        "p75": 55297,
        "p90": 144672
      },
      "tier": 1,
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 13980,
        "capital_old": 41109,
        "capital_ratio": 2.94,
        "service_newer": 16957,
        "service_old": 14722,
        "service_ratio": 0.87,
        "contractors_newer": 2,
        "contractors_old": 2,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 100,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 17.4,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": false
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 35920,
          "contractors": 3,
          "buildings": 13,
          "sqft_max": 30000
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 16612,
          "contractors": 1,
          "buildings": 4,
          "sqft_max": 75000
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 143773,
          "contractors": 2,
          "buildings": 11,
          "sqft_max": 1464000
        },
        "large_over_small": 4,
        "monotonic": false,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": false,
        "multiplier_small": 2.16,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 8.65
      },
      "excluded_because": [
        "only 6 contractors (floor 10)",
        "removing one contractor moves the average across contractors by 41.5%, over our 20% single-firm influence ceiling"
      ]
    },
    {
      "segment": "recreation",
      "label": "Recreation / entertainment",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 23466,
      "mean_across_contractors": 25906,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 1.1,
      "standard_error": 4773,
      "precision_pct": 18.4,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 9,
      "buildings": 119,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 25.4,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 20.2,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 11,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 16645,
        "median": 23466,
        "p75": 37792
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 3779,
        "median": 11139,
        "p75": 26872,
        "p90": 56790
      },
      "tier": 2,
      "excluded_because": [
        "only 9 contractors (floor 10)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "segment": "retail",
      "label": "Retail",
      "annual_revenue_per_building": 9828,
      "mean_across_contractors": 24170,
      "mean_over_median_ratio": 2.46,
      "standard_error": 7966,
      "precision_pct": 33,
      "precision_applies_to": "mean_across_contractors",
      "contractors": 49,
      "buildings": 2034,
      "top_contractor_dollar_share": 20,
      "top_contractor_building_share": 19.2,
      "max_single_contractor_influence_pct": 31.7,
      "publication_lane": "standard",
      "contractor_spread": {
        "p25": 7444,
        "median": 9828,
        "p75": 22547
      },
      "per_building_distribution": {
        "p25": 3121,
        "median": 6466,
        "p75": 14306,
        "p90": 27305
      },
      "tier": 4,
      "holdout_validation": {
        "fit_mean": 9756,
        "fit_contractors": 44,
        "holdout_mean": 12190,
        "holdout_contractors": 27,
        "holdout_buildings": 367,
        "relative_error_pct": 24.9,
        "agreement": "within"
      },
      "age_split": {
        "cohort_definition": "built 30+ years ago vs newer",
        "capital_newer": 2318,
        "capital_old": 1985,
        "capital_ratio": 0.86,
        "service_newer": 7648,
        "service_old": 6893,
        "service_ratio": 0.9,
        "contractors_newer": 19,
        "contractors_old": 28,
        "capital_se_old_pct": 28.8,
        "capital_se_newer_pct": 46.7,
        "ships_age_multiplier": false,
        "inverts": true
      },
      "size_gradient": {
        "tertile_basis": "Building floor area, cut into thirds within this segment",
        "small": {
          "mean": 8372,
          "contractors": 19,
          "buildings": 207,
          "sqft_max": 10948
        },
        "medium": {
          "mean": 10361,
          "contractors": 14,
          "buildings": 205,
          "sqft_max": 38130
        },
        "large": {
          "mean": 18925,
          "contractors": 21,
          "buildings": 202,
          "sqft_max": 939854
        },
        "large_over_small": 2.26,
        "monotonic": true,
        "small_large_separate_at_95": true,
        "ships_size_multiplier": true,
        "multiplier_small": 0.81,
        "multiplier_medium": 1,
        "multiplier_large": 1.83
      },
      "excluded_because": [
        "removing one contractor moves the average across contractors by 31.7%, over our 20% single-firm influence ceiling"
      ]
    }
  ]
}
