{
  "slug": "permit-market",
  "label": "U.S. contractor permit-market & structural-demand benchmarks",
  "publisher": "Level",
  "publisher_url": "https://levelcfo.com",
  "dataset": "The Level Index, contractor permit-market benchmarks",
  "attribution": "Level analysis of national public county and state building-permit records (over 400M permit records), public business registries and company records (NAICS 23 construction), and public county tax-assessor records (~74M parcels). Independently cross-checked against U.S. Census County Business Patterns 2022, Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB) 2022, and the Census Building Permits Survey.",
  "methodology": "All figures are geographic (state/MSA) or categorical (trade / revenue tier / permit-volume tier / month / year) aggregates. No individual contractor, company, property, owner, or address is identified or identifiable. Every published cell is backed by n >= 25; smaller cells are suppressed. Contractor business names are used only as a private grouping key and never published. Permit job values are declared permit valuations (skew commercial and to full-assembly work), not homeowner cost-guide quotes.",
  "segments": ["HVAC", "plumbing", "electrical", "roofing", "fire protection"],
  "last_updated": "2026-07-17",
  "date_range": "2022/2024",
  "license": "Free to cite with attribution to Level (levelcfo.com).",
  "name": "The Level Index, contractor permit-market & structural-demand benchmarks",
  "description": "Aggregate, anonymized permit-market benchmarks for U.S. specialty-trade contractors: revenue-value concentration (the CFO threshold), competitor density by metro and revenue tier, seasonal permit demand, job-value ranking by trade, and building-stock age by geography. Percentile and count distributions with per-metric definitions, sample sizes, and public-source corroboration. Free to cite with attribution to Level.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "public_building_permit",
      "description": "Public county and state building-permit records, over 400M permit records. Fields used: permit type/subtype/description, effective date, declared job value, contractor business name (grouping key only).",
      "grain": "permit"
    },
    {
      "key": "public_company_records",
      "description": "Public business registries and company records for U.S. contractors filtered to construction (NAICS 23), specialty-trade contractors NAICS 2381/2382/2383/2389. Company counts are deduplicated firm records. Denominator is all company records including nonemployers.",
      "grain": "company"
    },
    {
      "key": "public_tax_assessor",
      "description": "Public county tax-assessor property records, ~74M parcels. Fields used: year built.",
      "grain": "parcel"
    }
  ],
  "public_corroboration": [
    "Census SUSB 2022 (NAICS 238): $50M+ firms = 0.64% of employer firms and 32.7% of industry receipts; $10M+ firms = 4.3% and 60.3% of receipts. Independently reproduces Level's permit-value concentration (0.7% -> 32%; top 4% -> 61%).",
    "Census Building Permits Survey: U.S. permitted housing units 2023 = 1,514,772 -> 2024 = 1,482,048 (-2.2%), confirming 2024 was roughly flat, not the ~-36% seen in unadjusted recent-year permit counts (a reporting-lag artifact).",
    "Census County Business Patterns 2022: NAICS 238 = 510,803 employer establishments; SUSB 2022 = 500,271 employer firms. Level's ~2.3M company count uses an all-records (incl. nonemployer) public company-records denominator, which is larger than the government employer-firm base."
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "key": "cfo_threshold_value_concentration",
      "pillar": "Market structure",
      "label": "Permit-value concentration by contractor size tier",
      "unit": "share",
      "n": 577373,
      "definition": "Share of total declared permit value ($7.478T, 2022-2024) held by contractors bucketed by 3-year permit volume. Contractor = distinct business name within a state.",
      "tiers": [
        {"tier": "Micro", "permit_range": "<20", "contractors": 467476, "share_of_contractors_pct": 81.0, "avg_total_job_value_usd": 2271316, "avg_distinct_cities": 1.2, "share_of_total_value_pct": 14.2},
        {"tier": "Small", "permit_range": "20-99", "contractors": 85046, "share_of_contractors_pct": 14.7, "avg_total_job_value_usd": 21524786, "avg_distinct_cities": 2.4, "share_of_total_value_pct": 24.5},
        {"tier": "Mid", "permit_range": "100-499", "contractors": 20642, "share_of_contractors_pct": 3.6, "avg_total_job_value_usd": 106360386, "avg_distinct_cities": 5.1, "share_of_total_value_pct": 29.4},
        {"tier": "Large", "permit_range": "500+", "contractors": 4209, "share_of_contractors_pct": 0.7, "avg_total_job_value_usd": 567806780, "avg_distinct_cities": 9.8, "share_of_total_value_pct": 32.0}
      ],
      "note": "0.7% of contractors (Large) control 32% of permit value; the top ~4% (Mid+Large) control 61%. Average value per permit stays flat (~$400K-$550K) across every tier, so value scales with permit count and cities served, not job size. The CFO need is operational complexity, not deal size.",
      "basis": "Public building-permit records 2022-2024, all 51 state/territory partitions",
      "source": "public_building_permit",
      "external_corroboration": "Census SUSB 2022 (NAICS 238): $50M+ firms = 0.64% of employer firms -> 32.7% of receipts; $10M+ = 4.3% -> 60.3%. Near-exact match to Level's permit-value concentration."
    },
    {
      "key": "permits_per_contractor_distribution",
      "pillar": "Market structure",
      "label": "Permits per contractor (3-year, 2022-2024)",
      "unit": "permits",
      "n": 577373,
      "definition": "Distribution of 3-year permit counts across distinct contractors (business name within state).",
      "p25": 2,
      "p50": 5,
      "p75": 14,
      "p90": 41,
      "p95": 86,
      "p99": 387,
      "mean": 28.1,
      "note": "The median contractor pulls just 5 permits over three years; the top 1% pull 387+ (263+/year). Permit activity is extraordinarily top-heavy.",
      "basis": "Public building-permit records 2022-2024, all 51 partitions",
      "source": "public_building_permit"
    },
    {
      "key": "revenue_tier_population",
      "pillar": "Competitive density",
      "label": "U.S. specialty-trade contractor population by revenue tier",
      "unit": "companies",
      "n": 2300721,
      "definition": "Count of U.S. specialty-trade companies (NAICS 2381/2382/2383/2389) by revenue band. Denominator = all company records incl. nonemployers (public business registries and company records).",
      "tiers": [
        {"revenue_range": "$0M-$1M", "companies": 1931318, "share_pct": 83.94, "avg_age_yrs": 21.7, "avg_employees": 3.9},
        {"revenue_range": "$1M-$5M", "companies": 317415, "share_pct": 13.80, "avg_age_yrs": 23.4, "avg_employees": 10.9},
        {"revenue_range": "$5M-$10M", "companies": 38119, "share_pct": 1.66, "avg_age_yrs": 30.1, "avg_employees": 27.0},
        {"revenue_range": "$10M-$25M", "companies": 10050, "share_pct": 0.44, "avg_age_yrs": 37.8, "avg_employees": 76.8},
        {"revenue_range": "$25M-$50M", "companies": 2087, "share_pct": 0.09, "avg_age_yrs": 40.3, "avg_employees": 163.3}
      ],
      "note": "Only 0.6% of specialty-trade companies (13,869) clear $10M revenue. On an all-records basis the ratio of $1-5M : $5-10M : $10-25M is ~32:3.8:1. On the Census SUSB 2022 employer-firm basis (~500K firms) the same pyramid is ~8.5:1.6:1 and ~163K firms clear $1M. Cite the basis you need.",
      "basis": "Public business registries and company records, NAICS 2381-2389",
      "source": "public_company_records",
      "external_corroboration": "Census SUSB 2022: among ~500K NAICS-238 employer firms, $10M+ = 4.3% (21,516); $1M+ = 162,982. Pyramid direction confirmed; magnitude differs by denominator."
    },
    {
      "key": "mid_market_competitor_density",
      "pillar": "Competitive density",
      "label": "$5M-$25M specialty-trade competitors in the largest metros",
      "unit": "companies",
      "definition": "Count of specialty-trade companies in the $5M-$10M and $10M-$25M revenue bands in the most saturated metros (NAICS 2381-2389).",
      "top_metros": [
        {"metro": "Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA", "rev_5_10m": 1539, "rev_10_25m": 385, "rev_5_25m": 1924},
        {"metro": "New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA", "rev_5_10m": 1516, "rev_10_25m": 314, "rev_5_25m": 1830},
        {"metro": "Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX", "rev_5_10m": 1167, "rev_10_25m": 310, "rev_5_25m": 1477},
        {"metro": "Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA", "rev_5_10m": 1123, "rev_10_25m": 297, "rev_5_25m": 1420},
        {"metro": "Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI", "rev_5_10m": 1142, "rev_10_25m": 263, "rev_5_25m": 1405}
      ],
      "note": "Even in the most crowded mid-market (LA), only 1,924 specialty-trade contractors sit in the entire $5M-$25M band. Your real same-tier, same-metro competitor set is in the hundreds, not thousands.",
      "basis": "Public business registries and company records, NAICS 2381-2389",
      "source": "public_company_records"
    },
    {
      "key": "roofing_job_value_rank",
      "pillar": "Job economics",
      "label": "Median permit job value ranking by trade",
      "unit": "usd",
      "definition": "Roofing carries the highest typical (median) declared permit job value among the five specialty trades; ranking corroborated by public cost guides.",
      "ranking": ["roofing", "HVAC", "plumbing/electrical", "fire protection"],
      "roofing_median_permit_value_usd": 42700,
      "other_trades_median_permit_value_usd_range": [15000, 17000],
      "note": "Ranking (roofing highest ticket) is corroborated by public cost guides (roof replacement avg ~$9.5K-$11.5K vs HVAC replacement ~$7.5K, electrical panel ~$1.3K, plumbing repair ~$330). Permit-declared values run higher than homeowner quotes because permits skew commercial/full-assembly. Extreme state medians (e.g. Oklahoma HVAC $630K) are permit-reporting artifacts and are excluded from headline claims.",
      "basis": "Public building-permit records 2022-2024, all 51 partitions",
      "source": "public_building_permit",
      "external_corroboration": "Public cost guides (roof/HVAC/electrical/plumbing) confirm roofing as the highest typical job ticket."
    },
    {
      "key": "roofing_seasonality",
      "pillar": "Seasonality",
      "label": "Roofing permit seasonality (fall peak)",
      "unit": "index",
      "definition": "Roofing permit demand peaks in the fall. In Level's public permit data (2023, all 51 states), October roofing permits ran +45.8% above roofing's own monthly average and +34.8% above any other month; clean-year (2022-2023) Q4 roofing volume runs +25.7% above Q1.",
      "roofing_october_vs_monthly_avg_pct": 45.8,
      "roofing_q4_vs_q1_pct": 25.7,
      "note": "A fall roofing peak is independently documented by roofing-industry sources (homeowners rush to beat winter). The precise +45.8% October figure is from Level's public permit data and is not reproducible in public datasets; note that Census seasonally-adjusted housing-permit factors peak in May-June, so this fall spike is specific to roofing trade-permit timing. The finance takeaway: Q4 revenue peaks invoice on 30-60 day terms and the cash lands in Q1, when new work has dried up.",
      "basis": "Public building-permit records, 2022-2023 (complete years)",
      "source": "public_building_permit",
      "external_corroboration": "Roofing-industry sources document fall as peak roofing season. Census SA housing-permit factors peak May-June (national, all construction)."
    },
    {
      "key": "permit_volume_2024_flat",
      "pillar": "Market trend",
      "label": "2024 permit volume vs 2023 (lag-corrected)",
      "unit": "percent_change",
      "definition": "Year-over-year change in permit volume. Unadjusted full-year 2024 counts appear ~-36% below 2023, but that is a reporting-lag artifact (H2-2024 backfill incomplete). A lag-safe H1-only (Jan-Jun) comparison shows national permits essentially flat.",
      "raw_full_year_apparent_pct": -36,
      "lag_safe_h1_pct": -1.6,
      "note": "Do not benchmark off unadjusted recent-year permit totals. The real 2023->2024 signal is roughly flat.",
      "basis": "Public building-permit records, H1 (Jan-Jun) 2022/2023/2024, all 51 partitions",
      "source": "public_building_permit",
      "external_corroboration": "Census Building Permits Survey: U.S. permitted units 2023 = 1,514,772 -> 2024 = 1,482,048 (-2.2%). Confirms roughly flat, not a collapse."
    },
    {
      "key": "building_stock_age_by_geo",
      "pillar": "Structural demand",
      "label": "Building-stock age by geography (trade-demand driver)",
      "unit": "year",
      "definition": "Median year built and pre-1980 share of parcels by state and metro. Old stock drives replacement/retrofit demand (HVAC, plumbing, roofing, electrical); new stock drives new-install work.",
      "oldest_metros": [
        {"metro": "Pittsburgh PA", "median_year_built": 1917, "pct_pre_1980": 90.8},
        {"metro": "New York NY-NJ-PA", "median_year_built": 1936, "pct_pre_1980": 75.9},
        {"metro": "Philadelphia PA-NJ-DE-MD", "median_year_built": 1947, "pct_pre_1980": 76.6}
      ],
      "newest_metros": [
        {"metro": "Austin-Round Rock TX", "median_year_built": 1999, "pct_pre_1980": 25.9},
        {"metro": "Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ", "median_year_built": 1990, "pct_pre_1980": 30.4},
        {"metro": "Orlando-Kissimmee FL", "median_year_built": 1989, "pct_pre_1980": 32.5}
      ],
      "note": "82-year gap between the oldest metro (Pittsburgh, median 1917) and the newest (Austin, median 1999). The Northeast/Rust Belt is a replacement-demand belt; the Sun Belt is a new-install belt.",
      "basis": "Public county tax-assessor parcels, current assessment snapshot; year built 1700-2026",
      "source": "public_tax_assessor"
    }
  ]
}