{ "dataset": "Trade property opportunity by US state and metro", "version": "2026-08-25.1", "generated_by": "scripts/build-trade-property-opportunity-data.mjs", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "sales_consumer_contract_version": 1, "model_version": "2026-08-14.2", "building_stock_version": "1.0.2", "trade_market_asset_version": "2023.1", "coverage": { "states_and_dc": 51, "metros": 100, "trades": 15, "rows": 2265 }, "interpretation": { "standard_property_value_usd": "A transparent default property scenario, weighted by the local mix of supported building types. It is editable in the calculator and is not a quote.", "opportunity_value_usd": "Published only when the underlying result is an annual contractor-revenue scope that can be added across local inventory. Conditional projects remain null.", "withheld_value": "Null is an evidence decision, never zero. Project incidence is not invented to manufacture a territory total.", "geography": "Geography changes the inventory count and building-type mix. It does not apply a regional price multiplier." }, "sales_message_contract": { "purpose": "Machine-readable, scope-safe inputs for sales insight generation. This dataset supplies facts, never finished outreach copy.", "required_lookup_key": [ "geography_level", "geography_id_or_name", "trade" ], "tenant_data_available": false, "rules": [ "State and metro rows may describe building inventory and building-type mix.", "Only segment rows with a non-null perPropertyValue may support a building-type value claim.", "A null value is withheld and must never become zero.", "Only rows with aggregation_status published may support a territory opportunity total.", "Geography changes inventory and building-type mix, not the value of an otherwise identical building.", "Square footage, age, equipment, and other property refinements may be named only when the selected trade methodology lists that exact input as permitted and a verified property record supplies it.", "Tenant analysis is unsupported by this contract and must not be claimed." ] }, "sources": { "building_stock": "/data/benchmarks/geo-building-stock.json", "trade_models": "/data/benchmarks/all-trade-building-revenue-model.json", "local_trade_assets": "/data/benchmarks/trade-market-assets.json" }, "trade_methodologies": { "hvac": { "label": "HVAC / mechanical", "evidence_label": "Measured contractor billing by building type", "evidence_basis": "Measured building-specific benchmark", "limitation": "Measured building-specific benchmark", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "building_type", "validated_size_band", "validated_age_band" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "permit dollar level" ], "source_urls": [ "https://www.limbachinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/LMB-2025-Annual-Report.pdf", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm" ] }, "electrical": { "label": "Electrical", "evidence_label": "Measured contractor billing, with building adjustments withheld", "evidence_basis": "Measured generic benchmark, stable across two trade classifiers", "limitation": "The combined cohort covers 48 contractors and stays within 5% of the independent name-only and asset-only medians. The deterministic holdout passed. Building-type adjustments are withheld because they worsened held-out prediction.", "permitted_property_inputs": [], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "building_type", "size_band", "building age", "permit dollar level" ], "source_urls": [ "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048268/000104826825000174/iesc-20250930.htm" ] }, "plumbing": { "label": "Plumbing", "evidence_label": "Public project records combined with a federal building survey", "evidence_basis": "Public-data capital opportunity, recurring service requires a known device count", "limitation": "Do not treat the conditional project value or the annualized planning statistic as total annual plumbing revenue.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "building_type", "known backflow device count" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "generic permit multiplier", "size_band", "building age" ], "source_urls": [ "https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/law/WACPDF/WAC%20246%20%20TITLE/WAC%20246%20-290%20%20CHAPTER/WAC%20246%20-290%20-490.pdf", "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1731416191/cpsk12org/tt6n30m0mbdjfp2acojq/C-25041Backflow-Preventer-Inspections-and-Repairs-Bid-Tab-archive.pdf", "https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1762794748/cpsk12org/u3qkdryu5lpwod8po2iz/C-26028-Backflow-Preventer-Inspection-Repairs.pdf", "https://rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/20007/Bid-Tab---Backflow-Testing-and-Maintenance-Contract---Rock-Island-Arsenal?bidId=", "https://www.cosumnescsd.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27221", "https://www.cosumnescsd.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27397", "https://www.cpsk12.org/about/building-contact-list", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "https://www.epa.gov/dwcapacity/distribution-resources-small-drinking-water-systems", "https://www.limbachinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/LMB-2025-Annual-Report.pdf", "https://www.rigov.org/DocumentCenter/View/17507", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563425000015/eme-20241231.htm", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_140P1523P0030_1443_-NONE-_-NONE-", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_15B61723P00000121_1540_-NONE-_-NONE-" ] }, "fire_protection": { "label": "Fire protection", "evidence_label": "Awarded recurring-service floor", "evidence_basis": "Public awarded sprinkler ITM floor, scaled by maximum riser coverage", "limitation": "This is a mandated-inspection floor, not total fire-protection account revenue. It reads far below a total-account figure by construction.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "gross floor area", "known covered alarm device count" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "permit dollar level", "building age" ], "source_urls": [ "https://docinfofiles.nfpa.org/files/AboutTheCodes/13/13_A2018_AUT_SSD_SRReport.pdf", "https://s201.q4cdn.com/155847588/files/doc_news/APi-Group-Reports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-2026.pdf", "https://www.ecwa.org/files/pdf/item_1_testing_and_inspections_of_fire_alarm_detectors_and_equipment_agreement_pn_-_2022000218.pdf", "https://www.garrettcountymd.gov/sites/default/files/Bid%20%2317-1109FP-ARK%20Systems.pdf", "https://www.leeschools.net/common/pages/GetFile.ashx?key=cV5JDsev" ] }, "roofing": { "label": "Roofing", "evidence_label": "Executed maintenance pricing plus public project awards", "evidence_basis": "Roof-area model from an executed maintenance schedule and six public replacement awards", "limitation": "Federal and public facility awards carry Davis-Bacon prevailing wage and campus-wide scope, so they overstate a single private building. Supply roof area to get the evidence-based recurring figure instead.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "roof footprint square feet" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "gross floor area", "permit dollar level", "building age", "unverified roof age" ], "source_urls": [ "https://helenaschools.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Board-of-Trustees-Agenda-04.09.24.pdf", "https://swagit-attachments.granicus.com/uploads/event/agenda_file/38994/052725ag.pdf", "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "https://www.seaportmanatee.com/agendas/agenda032426/agenda032426.html", "https://www.wctc.edu/Files/_site-pdfs/district-board/meeting-documents/2026-01/01132026-Board-Packet.pdf" ] }, "cleaning": { "label": "Cleaning / janitorial", "evidence_label": "Executed area-priced service contracts", "evidence_basis": "Executed public-contract area model from one vendor and one state, checked against two independent public portfolios", "limitation": "Requires cleanable interior area. This is scheduled janitorial service revenue, not a total building account.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "cleanable interior square feet", "cleaning service level" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "gross building square feet unless the whole interior is in scope", "building age", "permit dollar level" ], "source_urls": [ "https://facilities.uky.edu/campus/facilities-services/custodial", "https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2003/fim/ch_4_5.asp", "https://www.abilityone.gov/procurement_list/services_custodial_case_history.html", "https://www.michigan.gov/dtmb/-/media/Project/Websites/dtmb/Procurement/Contracts/008/220000000273.pdf?hash=B0B4EC13855C6569E115C3C5A770B2B9&rev=a882b78e0c2b4540b2fc44675a031be9", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771497/000077149725000031/abm-20251031.htm" ] }, "elevator": { "label": "Elevator service", "evidence_label": "Public unit-priced service contracts", "evidence_basis": "Four official public portfolios covering 83 elevators, with mixed recurring-service scope", "limitation": "Requires a real elevator count and excludes repairs and modernization, so it is a recurring floor rather than total account revenue.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "covered elevator count" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "square footage", "building type", "modernization", "unmodeled repair events" ], "source_urls": [ "https://admin.southtexascollege.edu/president/agendas/2023/Board/2023-09-26-Regular-Board-Meeting-Packet.pdf", "https://cityofmerced.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=0F491757-D78F-4B2E-ABA2-D93C3FE2932B&ID=1247781&M=M", "https://d2kbkoa27fdvtw.cloudfront.net/sibfl/1edd7480686ab4c017ccf3ff5151de5b0.pdf", "https://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/ceo/agendas/1135847_01.18.2023-CommunityServicesClusterMeeting.pdf", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "https://www.otis.com/documents/d/otis-2/otis-annual-report" ] }, "refrigeration": { "label": "Commercial refrigeration", "evidence_label": "Public unit-priced service contracts", "evidence_basis": "Two same-district awarded equipment schedules with exact unit counts and an independent large-venue scope check", "limitation": "Requires a real equipment count and excludes repairs and replacement, so it is a scheduled-maintenance floor.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "covered commercial refrigeration equipment count" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "square footage alone", "repairs", "replacement", "one universal PM-to-total scalar" ], "source_urls": [ "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2292888/23623fb8-e997-11eb-b50b-0e8cd3911189/file/Refrigeration%20Services_Award%20Notification.pdf", "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2422920/6414a422-dc2d-11ec-9e02-0a26b8331069/file/RFP%20Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Services_%202023.pdf", "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2433209/3172ac36-e816-11ec-abc1-02f7a0dded9d/file/Bid%20Tab%20Sheet-Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Services.pdf", "https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/1558565/9bb590a6-85cb-11e8-8e69-12904ceb35e2/2437162/ca56022e-ee54-11ec-aec0-0e216979ff5f/file/Refrigeration%20Equipment%20Preventative%20Maintenance%20Bid%20Award%20Notice.pdf", "https://occompt.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?GUID=495F0C48-559A-46C1-B9B8-DD9C1BB92B09&ID=7157818&Options=&Search=", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/pdf/Users%20Guide%20to%20the%202018%20CBECS%20Public%20Use%20Microdata%20File.pdf", "https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/xls/cbecs2018_final_public.csv", "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor", "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/datasets/2023/cbp23msa.zip", "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/datasets/2023/cbp23st.zip" ] }, "landscaping": { "label": "Landscaping / grounds", "evidence_label": "Public area-priced service contracts", "evidence_basis": "Four official public contracts with maintained-landscape denominators and materially different service scopes", "limitation": "Requires maintained acres. The observed rates span 43x because mowing-focused, mixed grounds, detailed multi-site, and high-touch district scopes are not interchangeable.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "maintained landscape acres", "grounds service scope" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "building square footage", "parcel area", "irrigation repair", "tree work", "snow", "capital beautification", "contingencies" ], "source_urls": [ "https://apps.lakeoswego.city/WebLink/DocView.aspx?dbid=0&id=3342905&repo=CityOfLakeOswego", "https://brevardfl.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=77C7C44B-DD64-492F-830B-3AF25C2272C7&ID=14529399&M=F", "https://d3n9y02raazwpg.cloudfront.net/greenville/a5309680-56c5-11ed-95a3-0050569183fa-970bf21f-f56b-416f-a6a9-70488f43e9f9-1678907631.pdf", "https://plano.novusagenda.com/Agendapublic/CoverSheet.aspx?ItemID=8331&MeetingID=3407", "https://s22.q4cdn.com/142468460/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/BrightView-8K-Q4FY25-Vf.pdf" ] }, "pest_control": { "label": "Pest control", "evidence_label": "Public portfolio comparison", "evidence_basis": "Two official pooled public portfolios with floor-area denominators plus an executed small-stop price floor", "limitation": "This is public-portfolio context, not a price quote or measured market revenue. It excludes termites, bed bugs, wildlife, fumigation, emergencies, and one-time eradication.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "resolved gross floor area" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "termite projects", "bed bugs", "wildlife", "fumigation", "emergency work", "one-time eradication" ], "source_urls": [ "https://alachua.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?GUID=6C5FCF58-EF2B-46A4-82F4-97464B8138CB&ID=5132990&Options=&Search=", "https://alachua.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=2829E9AF-F874-46A2-8E1A-2D1D1656B33F&ID=9800200&M=F", "https://austintexas.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?GID=684&GUID=E0874C98-CBC0-4042-9A01-C0F69C187CAE&ID=5431477&M=R&N=Text&Title=Legislation+Text", "https://www.acgov.org/board/bos_calendar/documents/DocsAgendaReg_07_09_19/GENERAL%20ADMINISTRATION/Regular%20Calendar/GSA_281723.pdf", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/84839/000153949725000918/n4107_x3ars.pdf" ] }, "solar": { "label": "Solar service", "evidence_label": "Competitively awarded conditional projects", "evidence_basis": "LBNL project-level installed prices for 211,183 residential and 3,040 nonresidential contractor-installed PV systems", "limitation": "Installed price is paid by the owner before incentives and can include financing fees. It does not prove one contractor retained every dollar.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "installed commercial PV capacity in kWdc" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "building square footage", "annualization", "territory multiplication" ], "source_urls": [ "https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/tracking_the_sun_2024_report.pdf", "https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2377191", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22701/000002270126000003/sune-20251231x10k.htm" ] }, "controls_bas": { "label": "Controls / building automation", "evidence_label": "Public labor-rate bid", "evidence_basis": "One official responsive public bid with exact regular and after-hours labor rates", "limitation": "Requires planned service hours. Materials, software, servers, controllers, annual PM, and emergency project scope are excluded.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "planned regular onsite BAS hours", "planned after-hours BAS hours" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "building square footage", "default hours", "materials", "server and software lines", "annual PM lines without covered inventory" ], "source_urls": [ "https://garlandisd.net/media/16981/download?inline=", "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor" ] }, "general_contracting": { "label": "General contracting", "evidence_label": "Competitively awarded conditional projects", "evidence_basis": "Five competitively awarded 2026 interior-renovation projects with exact renovated-area denominators", "limitation": "Requires renovation-scope square feet. Never substitute total building area, annualize the result, or multiply it across a territory.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "renovation scope square feet" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "total building square feet", "annualization", "territory multiplication" ], "source_urls": [ "https://investor.graniteconstruction.com/news-and-events/press-releases/granite-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results", "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/219392", "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/219751", "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/220697", "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/220743", "https://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/View/221765", "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1058", "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1061", "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1076", "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1078", "https://www.loudoun.gov/bids.aspx?bidID=1085", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000028/tpc-20251231.htm" ] }, "restoration": { "label": "Restoration", "evidence_label": "Competitively awarded conditional projects", "evidence_basis": "Five awarded public mold, fire, and water remediation projects, normalized to 2025 dollars", "limitation": "The observations cover different causes and scopes across public facilities. The middle range is evidence context, not a quote, annual expectation, or event probability.", "permitted_property_inputs": [], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "annual incidence", "territory multiplication", "contents claims", "private and uninsured losses", "all restoration causes" ], "source_urls": [ "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/CUUR0000SA0?startyear=2020&endyear=2025", "https://cms.lbb.texas.gov/Default.aspx?aid=730&cid=W2145143", "https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/DataSetCodes?$filter=datasetId%20eq%20%27openfema-95%27%20and%20fieldName%20eq%20%27occupancyType%27&$top=100", "https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/OpenFemaDataSets?$filter=identifier+eq+%27openfema-95%27", "https://www.middlesexcollege.edu/about/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/08/minutes-2011-05.pdf", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981599/000198159926000048/ars2025.pdf", "https://www.tnstate.edu/procurement/severance-documents/Sample%20Diversity%20Report.pdf", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA930125F0126_9700_FA930123A0005_9700", "https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA930125F0206_9700_FA930123A0005_9700" ] }, "doors_docks": { "label": "Commercial doors / docks", "evidence_label": "Public unit-priced service contracts", "evidence_basis": "One awarded public portfolio covering 124 overhead doors, hangar doors, and rolling gates", "limitation": "Requires a real covered door and gate count. This is scheduled preventive maintenance from one public portfolio, not total door and dock account revenue.", "permitted_property_inputs": [ "covered overhead door, hangar door, and rolling gate count" ], "excluded_property_inputs": [ "square footage", "building type", "emergency repair allowance", "replacement work" ], "source_urls": [ "https://schaumburg.novusagenda.com/AgendaPublic/CoverSheet.aspx?ItemID=23060&MeetingID=3634", "https://www.levelcfo.com/benchmarks/contractor" ] } }, "rows": [ { "geography_level": "state", "geography_id": "01", "geography_name": "Alabama", "geography_url": "https://levelcfo.com/benchmarks/alabama/", "trade": "hvac", "trade_label": "HVAC / mechanical", "building_count": 57713, "supported_building_count": 57713, "standard_property_value_usd": 24608, "standard_property_gross_profit_usd": 5931, "opportunity_value_usd": 1420184512, "opportunity_gross_profit_usd": 342264467, "gross_margin_pct": 24.1, "result_kind": "annual_service", "aggregation_status": "published", "method": "Measured segment revenue per building multiplied by measured local building counts.", "estimated_service_locations": null, "estimated_units": null, "calculator_url": "https://levelcfo.com/tools/building-revenue-calculator/?trade=hvac&t=office", "segments": [ { "segment": "multifamily", "segmentLabel": "Multifamily", "buildingCount": 16149, "perPropertyValue": 26356, "opportunityValue": 425623044, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "office", "segmentLabel": "Office", "buildingCount": 15696, "perPropertyValue": 21088, "opportunityValue": 330997248, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "education", "segmentLabel": "Education", "buildingCount": 7915, "perPropertyValue": 29120, "opportunityValue": 230484800, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "worship", "segmentLabel": "Worship", "buildingCount": 7542, "perPropertyValue": 25370, "opportunityValue": 191340540, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "government", "segmentLabel": "Government", "buildingCount": 2646, "perPropertyValue": 25653, "opportunityValue": 67877838, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "healthcare", "segmentLabel": "Healthcare", "buildingCount": 2820, "perPropertyValue": 20914, "opportunityValue": 58977480, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "hospitality", "segmentLabel": "Hospitality", "buildingCount": 1062, "perPropertyValue": 42333, "opportunityValue": 44957646, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "warehouse", "segmentLabel": "Warehouse / distribution", "buildingCount": 3243, "perPropertyValue": 13012, "opportunityValue": 42197916, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "industrial", "segmentLabel": "Industrial / manufacturing", "buildingCount": 640, "perPropertyValue": 43325, "opportunityValue": 27728000, "resultKind": "annual_service" } ] }, { "geography_level": "state", "geography_id": "01", "geography_name": "Alabama", "geography_url": "https://levelcfo.com/benchmarks/alabama/", "trade": "electrical", "trade_label": "Electrical", "building_count": 57713, "supported_building_count": 57713, "standard_property_value_usd": 19045, "standard_property_gross_profit_usd": 4856, "opportunity_value_usd": 1099144085, "opportunity_gross_profit_usd": 280281742, "gross_margin_pct": 25.5, "result_kind": "annual_service", "scope_label": "Total annual account revenue", "aggregation_status": "published", "method": "A standard, editable property scenario is applied by building type and added across measured local building counts.", "estimated_service_locations": null, "estimated_units": null, "calculator_url": "https://levelcfo.com/tools/building-revenue-calculator/?trade=electrical&t=office", "segments": [ { "segment": "multifamily", "segmentLabel": "Multifamily", "buildingCount": 16149, "perPropertyValue": 19045, "opportunityValue": 307557705, "resultKind": "annual_service" }, { "segment": "office", "segmentLabel": "Office", 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