The Level Index, permit market
Where contractor permit demand concentrates
See when a local shop becomes a multi-crew, multi-jurisdiction operator, what financial controls change at each tier, and how roofing seasonality affects cash. Built from national aggregate permit data.
A scale map for trade CEOs
Level analyzed aggregated county and state permit records covering more than 400 million source permit rows. Permit count does not tell you revenue or market share. It can flag questions about geographic and job volume complexity; it does not measure crews or a transition over time. The headline extract contains 577,373 business-name/state groups, a filtered subset of the source corpus.
The market structure
Permit demand is concentrated in a thin operating tier
Use permit activity to frame questions about volume and geography, not as a revenue forecast. Declared permit value is not the same as contractor revenue. Groups are business names within a state; aliases and cross-state duplicates can remain. Summed full-project values can repeat across permits.
4.3%
of contractor groups hold 100 or more permits over three years
61.4%
of declared permit value sits with that same tier
5 vs 387+
three-year permits for the median contractor group versus the top 1%
| Operating tier | Permits, 3 years | Contractor groups | Avg. cities | CEO priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micro | <20 | 81.0% | 1.2 | Win locally and know which job types actually make money. |
| Small | 20-99 | 14.7% | 2.4 | Standardize estimating, dispatch, billing, and weekly cash visibility. |
| Mid | 100-499 | 3.6% | 5.1 | Run job costing, WIP, and cash forecasting by crew and jurisdiction. |
| Large | 500+ | 0.7% | 9.8 | Build branch-level controls, close discipline, and capital allocation. |
A complexity question to check
In this cross-section, groups in the 20 to 99 permit tier average 2.4 distinct cities in their records; groups in the 100 to 499 tier average 5.1. That difference does not show any company moving between tiers, and it does not measure crews. If your business spans more markets, check whether one company-wide margin is hiding weaker crews, slower jurisdictions or cash-heavy job mixes. Review profit and cash by crew, branch, and market before adding the next territory.
Seasonality
Your peak month depends on your trade
The five trade rows have different peak months in this historical source. Compare your row with actual bookings, completion dates and payment terms before timing hiring, purchasing or cash reserves.
| Trade | Peak month | Peak vs. own average | Peak to trough | 2023 permits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roofing | Oct | +45.8% | 1.75x | 921,002 |
| HVAC | Oct | +16.3% | 1.38x | 2,054,088 |
| Plumbing | Aug | +18.0% | 1.36x | 2,111,178 |
| Electrical | Aug | +15.5% | 1.33x | 3,216,085 |
| Fire protection | Dec | +19.8% | 1.40x | 2,072,432 |
CEO read: Roofing has the sharpest peak, while plumbing and electrical peak earlier in August and fire protection peaks in December. Compare this demand timing with your own quote, backlog, invoice, and collection curves. Permit activity is not booked revenue.
Project mix
What an active permit year looks like by trade
This is declared permitted scope in a property-year with at least one classified permit. It is useful for comparing project mix across trades. It is not recurring revenue, an invoice, or the average for every building in the market.
| Trade | Middle half | Median | Active property-years | States |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVAC / mechanical | $8,160 to $100,048 | $22,573 | 103,083 | 46 |
| Plumbing | $3,358 to $59,037 | $15,794 | 77,306 | 44 |
| Electrical | $3,004 to $60,726 | $10,990 | 131,909 | 45 |
| Roofing | $15,710 to $135,013 | $39,280 | 76,314 | 45 |
| Fire protection | $5,717 to $97,764 | $23,550 | 83,581 | 43 |
Each state is summarized first, then the table reports the typical state result so high-volume jurisdictions do not dominate the national comparison.
Download the project-scope evidence
The files include the five trade summaries, state aggregates, and building-type cells that cleared the publication floor. They contain no properties, addresses, owners, or contractor names.
Download the evidence behind these claims
The claim-support file contains only national aggregates, definitions, sample sizes, and source notes. It excludes contractor names, addresses, properties, and raw records.
Source boundary: Level analyzed a standardized aggregation of public county and state permit records. We did not independently scrape every issuing jurisdiction. Census Building Permits Survey and SUSB data provide separately defined public context, not an independent reproduction of these groups or dollar shares. The downloadable files publish only aggregates with at least 25 underlying records per cell.
Can your financial controls keep up with your territory?
Level shows profit and cash by job, crew, branch, and market, so growth does not hide where the business is getting weaker.
No commitment. Real numbers, not generic advice.
What this means for you
Permit volume is an operating-complexity signal. It is not contractor revenue, market share, or a demand forecast.
Quick win this week
Count the jurisdictions and crews behind your last 12 months of permitted work, then compare margin and collection speed across them.
Strategic fix
Build branch and crew reporting before entering the next territory, so company-wide averages cannot hide a weak market.