The Level Index, permit market
Where contractor permit demand concentrates
See when a local shop becomes a multi-crew, multi-jurisdiction operator, what financial controls change at each tier, and how roofing seasonality affects cash. Built from national aggregate permit data.
A scale map for trade CEOs
Level analyzed aggregated county and state permit records covering more than 400 million permits. Permit count does not tell you revenue or market share. It does show when a contractor's operating model changes from a local shop into a multi-crew, multi-jurisdiction business.
The market structure
Permit demand is concentrated in a thin operating tier
Use permit activity to judge market complexity and account concentration, not as a revenue forecast. Declared permit value is not the same as contractor revenue.
4.3%
of contractor groups hold 100 or more permits over three years
61.4%
of declared permit value sits with that same tier
5 vs 387+
three-year permits for the median contractor group versus the top 1%
| Operating tier | Permits, 3 years | Contractor groups | Avg. cities | CEO priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micro | <20 | 81.0% | 1.2 | Win locally and know which job types actually make money. |
| Small | 20-99 | 14.7% | 2.4 | Standardize estimating, dispatch, billing, and weekly cash visibility. |
| Mid | 100-499 | 3.6% | 5.1 | Run job costing, WIP, and cash forecasting by crew and jurisdiction. |
| Large | 500+ | 0.7% | 9.8 | Build branch-level controls, close discipline, and capital allocation. |
The transition to watch
Contractor groups move from an average of 2.4 cities in the 20 to 99 permit tier to 5.1 cities in the 100 to 499 tier. That is where one company-wide margin can start hiding weak crews, slow jurisdictions, and cash-heavy job mixes. Review profit and cash by crew, branch, and market before adding the next territory.
Seasonality
Your peak month depends on your trade
There is no honest all-trade seasonality average. Use your row to time hiring, purchasing, credit capacity, and cash reserves before activity peaks.
| Trade | Peak month | Peak vs. own average | Peak to trough | 2023 permits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roofing | Oct | +45.8% | 1.75x | 921,002 |
| HVAC | Oct | +16.3% | 1.38x | 2,054,088 |
| Plumbing | Aug | +18.0% | 1.36x | 2,111,178 |
| Electrical | Aug | +15.5% | 1.33x | 3,216,085 |
| Fire protection | Dec | +19.8% | 1.40x | 2,072,432 |
CEO read: Roofing has the sharpest peak, while plumbing and electrical peak earlier in August and fire protection peaks in December. Compare this demand timing with your own quote, backlog, invoice, and collection curves. Permit activity is not booked revenue.
Project mix
What an active permit year looks like by trade
This is declared permitted scope in a property-year with at least one classified permit. It is useful for comparing project mix across trades. It is not recurring revenue, an invoice, or the average for every building in the market.
| Trade | Middle half | Median | Active property-years | States |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVAC / mechanical | $8,160 to $100,048 | $22,573 | 103,083 | 46 |
| Plumbing | $3,358 to $59,037 | $15,794 | 77,306 | 44 |
| Electrical | $3,004 to $60,726 | $10,990 | 131,909 | 45 |
| Roofing | $15,710 to $135,013 | $39,280 | 76,314 | 45 |
| Fire protection | $5,717 to $97,764 | $23,550 | 83,581 | 43 |
Each state is summarized first, then the table reports the typical state result so high-volume jurisdictions do not dominate the national comparison.
Download the project-scope evidence
The files include the five trade summaries, state aggregates, and building-type cells that cleared the publication floor. They contain no properties, addresses, owners, or contractor names.
Download the evidence behind these claims
The claim-support file contains only national aggregates, definitions, sample sizes, and source notes. It excludes contractor names, addresses, properties, and raw records.
Source boundary: Level analyzed a standardized aggregation of public county and state permit records. We did not independently scrape every issuing jurisdiction. Census Building Permits Survey and SUSB data provide independent public checks. The downloadable files publish only aggregates with at least 25 underlying records per cell.
Can your financial controls keep up with your territory?
Level shows profit and cash by job, crew, branch, and market, so growth does not hide where the business is getting weaker. Free audit included.
No commitment. Real numbers, not generic advice.
What this means for you
Permit volume is an operating-complexity signal. It is not contractor revenue, market share, or a demand forecast.
Quick win this week
Count the jurisdictions and crews behind your last 12 months of permitted work, then compare margin and collection speed across them.
Strategic fix
Build branch and crew reporting before entering the next territory, so company-wide averages cannot hide a weak market.