Everything for a Minnesota contractor in one place: bill rates and margins versus the national median, how big the roofing, HVAC, and cleaning market is here, how crowded your revenue tier is, and what skilled labor costs locally.
Key Finding
Minnesota's harsh winters drive heavy HVAC and plumbing demand from October through April. Contractors who offer service agreements with guaranteed response times during heating season command significant premiums.
For a 10-tech shop, that $17/hr difference means $340K per year in additional revenue compared to the national median.
Median Bill Rate
$96/hr
75th Percentile
$118/hr
Top 10%
$142/hr
How we measure: state bill rates are modeled from Level's rate-card research across 1,770 contractors, blended across HVAC, mechanical, plumbing, and electrical, and skewed commercial. One caveat we surface openly: the underlying rate field is entered inconsistently, some firms record customer billing rates, others record loaded labor cost or base wages, so a state median blends both. Treat these as directional market estimates, not a precise per-state distribution. National operating metrics below are measured; see the contractor benchmark JSON for definitions and sample sizes.
About $3.0B in combined annual services demand across roughly 2,662 employer firms. Here is how the demand splits and how many competitors sit at each revenue tier.
Commercial Cleaning
$1.1B
work available per year
$0 residential / $1.1B commercial
1,181 employer firms
89 at $1-5M · 20 at $5-10M · 6 at $10-25M
HVAC
$461.1M
work available per year
$253.6M residential / $207.5M commercial
817 employer firms
254 at $1-5M · 40 at $5-10M · 20 at $10-25M
Roofing
$1.3B
work available per year
$781.5M residential / $565.9M commercial
664 employer firms
166 at $1-5M · 29 at $5-10M · 15 at $10-25M
Competitor counts are US Census employer firms (Statistics of U.S. Businesses): businesses with paid employees, which is the universe that actually competes for $1M+ contracts. It excludes the large tail of no-payroll sole proprietors (who average well under $100K/yr). Revenue-tier splits use the SUSB receipt-size tables (2017, the latest Census publishes receipts for). HVAC is reported as its analyst-estimated share of the combined plumbing+heating+AC NAICS 238220 code, since Census does not isolate HVAC.
We count about 49,535 commercial buildings over 4,000 square feet. This building stock is relevant to HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and fire protection.
Counts are by structure, not parcel, and are a coverage floor rather than a complete census. We do not attach an all-trade revenue total because the available billing model is mechanical-only and would mislabel the opportunity for every other trade.
Serviceable buildings
49,535
commercial structures over 4,000 sqft
Largest building segment
21,187
multifamily
Plumbing and HVAC context
27
buildings per NAICS 238220 location, not an all-trade rival count
| Building type | Buildings | Share of counted stock |
|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 21,187 | 42.8% |
| Government | 6,854 | 13.8% |
| Office | 6,041 | 12.2% |
| Education | 5,904 | 11.9% |
| Worship | 3,094 | 6.2% |
| Hospitality | 2,613 | 5.3% |
| Healthcare | 1,942 | 3.9% |
| Warehouse / distribution | 1,366 | 2.8% |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 534 | 1.1% |
Buildings are counted per structure inside Minnesota, from FEMA/ORNL USA Structures, filtered to commercial occupancies over 4,000 square feet and excluding structures under 3.2 meters tall. Counts are a floor because coverage varies by place.
Competitor counts and employment are Census County Business Patterns for NAICS 238220, plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors. They are retained as a clearly labeled mechanical-market comparison, not presented as roofing, electrical, or fire-protection competition.
Equipment market sizing
We apply national CBECS equipment incidence to the measured Minnesota building stock. Refrigeration also includes local Census food-service and grocery establishments. These are planning estimates, not equipment censuses.
Commercial refrigeration
80,853
estimated covered units across about 16.2K serviceable locations
$22,800,546 / year
scheduled PM at $282 per unit, saturation scenario
About $8,641,407 gross profit at 37.9% margin
Size one building and your market share →Elevator service
11,498
estimated covered units across about 4.3K serviceable locations
$43,887,866 / year
recurring service at $3,817 per unit, saturation scenario
About $13,298,023 gross profit at 30.3% margin
Size one building and your market share →The estimate excludes multifamily and industrial buildings because CBECS does not support those mappings here. Refrigeration covers scheduled maintenance only. Elevator service excludes repairs and modernization.
Residential roofing and HVAC demand tracks the single-family housing stock and its age. Here is the public Census picture for Minnesota, the base the market is sized on.
Single-family homes
1.7M
2.6M total housing units
Median year built
1979
Older stock, replacement-driven
2024 building permits
21K
13,420 single-family (new-construction signal)
Owner-occupied
1.7M
Homes with an owner who pays for the work
What drives demand here: Minnesota's extreme cold winters and heavy snow loads combined with frequent summer hail storms drive strong furnace and roofing replacement demand.
Housing figures: US Census ACS 2024 1-year (B25001 housing units, B25024 single-family, B25035 median year built) (Census). Permits: US Census Building Permits Survey 2024 (annual state file) (Census BPS). Permits are a new-construction signal; roofing and HVAC demand is mostly replacement-driven, so read them together with housing age.
These metrics are reported nationally. Where your Minnesota business falls depends on your specific operations. See the full national breakdown.
Collection Rate
85.1%
Top quartile: 92.7%
n=464 companies
SA Gross Margin
37.9%
Top quartile: 53%
n=259 companies
Billing Speed
1 day
Raw median (incl. progress billers); ~7 days for post-completion invoicers
n=733 companies
Billing Capture
97.1%
Hours invoiced divided by hours logged on jobs, not "utilization". Top quartile: 100%
n=963 companies
Quote Conversion
73.9%
Top quartile: 83.2%
n=794 companies
Minnesota Bill Rate
$96/hr
Top quartile: $118/hr
58+ Minnesota contractors estimated in market
What you will pay for skilled labor and what it takes to operate legally in Minnesota, the two inputs that decide whether the demand above is worth chasing.
| Trade | Median wage (BLS) |
|---|---|
| Roofers | $37.37/hr |
| HVAC mechanics and installers | $35.29/hr |
| Janitors and building cleaners | $18.42/hr |
Specialty-trade establishments
11,347
NAICS 238 (all specialty trades), Census 2022
Licensing
Residential building contractors, remodelers, and roofers are licensed by the MN Dept of Labor and Industry. A single-skill roofer uses a residential roofer license category; two or more skills trigger the residential building contractor license. HVAC/mechanical is not a standalone state contractor license in the same program.
Wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2024, state data, hourly median (Colorado roofer wage suppressed in the 2024 state file, so CO uses May 2023) (BLS OEWS MN; Roofers SOC 47-2181; HVAC mechanics/installers 49-9021; janitors and building cleaners 37-2011). Establishments: US Census County Business Patterns / SUSB 2022, NAICS 238 (specialty trade contractors) (Census SUSB). Licensing from state board and statute; verify current requirements before operating.
National contractor-services revenue is anchored to definition-matched public figures: roofing ~$70B (US Census 2022 Economic Census, NAICS 238160 employer receipts), HVAC services ~$24B (industry research; residential is the larger share in the US), and commercial janitorial ~$60B (a commercial-only slice of the ~$80B US janitorial total). Each national total is allocated to states by that state's relative share of housing (residential) and commercial activity (commercial), then residential vs commercial is split by the national-average share for the trade. Competitor counts are US Census SUSB employer firms by revenue tier (receipt-size tables), redistributed to states by each state's relative share. This is directional market sizing; treat the numbers as estimates and read residential/commercial as an assumed split, not a measured one.
Directional market sizing, not an independent per-state survey. National totals are anchored to definition-matched published figures (contractor-services revenue, not materials markets); the state distribution is a modeled share and residential vs commercial is applied as a national-average split, not measured per state. Figures are estimates, ranges where noted.
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