Everything for a Tennessee contractor in one place: bill rates and margins versus the national median, how big the roofing, HVAC, and cleaning market is here, how crowded your revenue tier is, and what skilled labor costs locally.
Key Finding
Nashville's construction boom is pushing Tennessee bill rates upward, and the Nashville metro bills above the statewide median, but many contractors outside Davidson County have not adjusted their rates to match local demand.
For a 10-tech shop, that $3/hr difference means $60K per year in additional revenue compared to the national median.
Median Bill Rate
$82/hr
75th Percentile
$104/hr
Top 10%
$128/hr
How we measure: state bill rates are modeled from Level's rate-card research across 1,770 contractors, blended across HVAC, mechanical, plumbing, and electrical, and skewed commercial. One caveat we surface openly: the underlying rate field is entered inconsistently, some firms record customer billing rates, others record loaded labor cost or base wages, so a state median blends both. Treat these as directional market estimates, not a precise per-state distribution. National operating metrics below are measured; see the contractor benchmark JSON for definitions and sample sizes.
About $3.4B in combined annual services demand across roughly 2,184 employer firms. Here is how the demand splits and how many competitors sit at each revenue tier.
Commercial Cleaning
$1.3B
work available per year
$0 residential / $1.3B commercial
1,016 employer firms
83 at $1-5M · 21 at $5-10M · 5 at $10-25M
HVAC
$530.1M
work available per year
$291.6M residential / $238.6M commercial
765 employer firms
212 at $1-5M · 45 at $5-10M · 17 at $10-25M
Roofing
$1.6B
work available per year
$911.3M residential / $659.9M commercial
403 employer firms
132 at $1-5M · 21 at $5-10M · 11 at $10-25M
Competitor counts are US Census employer firms (Statistics of U.S. Businesses): businesses with paid employees, which is the universe that actually competes for $1M+ contracts. It excludes the large tail of no-payroll sole proprietors (who average well under $100K/yr). Revenue-tier splits use the SUSB receipt-size tables (2017, the latest Census publishes receipts for). HVAC is reported as its analyst-estimated share of the combined plumbing+heating+AC NAICS 238220 code, since Census does not isolate HVAC.
We count about 76,919 commercial buildings over 4,000 square feet. This building stock is relevant to HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and fire protection.
Counts are by structure, not parcel, and are a coverage floor rather than a complete census. We do not attach an all-trade revenue total because the available billing model is mechanical-only and would mislabel the opportunity for every other trade.
Serviceable buildings
76,919
commercial structures over 4,000 sqft
Largest building segment
29,468
multifamily
Plumbing and HVAC context
41
buildings per NAICS 238220 location, not an all-trade rival count
| Building type | Buildings | Share of counted stock |
|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 29,468 | 38.3% |
| Office | 12,143 | 15.8% |
| Worship | 9,268 | 12.0% |
| Government | 8,183 | 10.6% |
| Education | 7,752 | 10.1% |
| Warehouse / distribution | 4,809 | 6.3% |
| Healthcare | 3,450 | 4.5% |
| Hospitality | 1,625 | 2.1% |
| Industrial / manufacturing | 221 | 0.3% |
Buildings are counted per structure inside Tennessee, from FEMA/ORNL USA Structures, filtered to commercial occupancies over 4,000 square feet and excluding structures under 3.2 meters tall. Counts are a floor because coverage varies by place.
Competitor counts and employment are Census County Business Patterns for NAICS 238220, plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors. They are retained as a clearly labeled mechanical-market comparison, not presented as roofing, electrical, or fire-protection competition.
Equipment market sizing
We apply national CBECS equipment incidence to the measured Tennessee building stock. Refrigeration also includes local Census food-service and grocery establishments. These are planning estimates, not equipment censuses.
Commercial refrigeration
112,831
estimated covered units across about 23K serviceable locations
$31,818,342 / year
scheduled PM at $282 per unit, saturation scenario
About $12,059,152 gross profit at 37.9% margin
Size one building and your market share →Elevator service
17,857
estimated covered units across about 6.6K serviceable locations
$68,160,169 / year
recurring service at $3,817 per unit, saturation scenario
About $20,652,531 gross profit at 30.3% margin
Size one building and your market share →The estimate excludes multifamily and industrial buildings because CBECS does not support those mappings here. Refrigeration covers scheduled maintenance only. Elevator service excludes repairs and modernization.
Residential roofing and HVAC demand tracks the single-family housing stock and its age. Here is the public Census picture for Tennessee, the base the market is sized on.
Single-family homes
2.3M
3.2M total housing units
Median year built
1988
Newer stock, growth plus replacement
2024 building permits
45K
32,660 single-family (new-construction signal)
Owner-occupied
2.0M
Homes with an owner who pays for the work
What drives demand here: Strong in-migration and new build; hail and humidity drive roofing and HVAC.
Housing figures: US Census ACS 2024 1-year (B25001 housing units, B25024 single-family, B25035 median year built) (Census). Permits: US Census Building Permits Survey 2024 (annual state file) (Census BPS). Permits are a new-construction signal; roofing and HVAC demand is mostly replacement-driven, so read them together with housing age.
These metrics are reported nationally. Where your Tennessee business falls depends on your specific operations. See the full national breakdown.
Collection Rate
85.1%
Top quartile: 92.7%
n=464 companies
SA Gross Margin
37.9%
Top quartile: 53%
n=259 companies
Billing Speed
1 day
Raw median (incl. progress billers); ~7 days for post-completion invoicers
n=733 companies
Billing Capture
97.1%
Hours invoiced divided by hours logged on jobs, not "utilization". Top quartile: 100%
n=963 companies
Quote Conversion
73.9%
Top quartile: 83.2%
n=794 companies
Tennessee Bill Rate
$82/hr
Top quartile: $104/hr
64+ Tennessee contractors estimated in market
What you will pay for skilled labor and what it takes to operate legally in Tennessee, the two inputs that decide whether the demand above is worth chasing.
| Trade | Median wage (BLS) |
|---|---|
| Roofers | $21.53/hr |
| HVAC mechanics and installers | $24.75/hr |
| Janitors and building cleaners | $15.01/hr |
Specialty-trade establishments
7,854
NAICS 238 (all specialty trades), Census 2022
Licensing
The Tennessee Board for Licensing Contractors requires a state Contractor's License for any project totaling $25,000 or more, covering roofing and mechanical/HVAC. HVAC-only work below that can fall under the board's Limited Licensed Mechanical classification.
Wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2024, state data, hourly median (Colorado roofer wage suppressed in the 2024 state file, so CO uses May 2023) (BLS OEWS TN; Roofers SOC 47-2181; HVAC mechanics/installers 49-9021; janitors and building cleaners 37-2011). Establishments: US Census County Business Patterns / SUSB 2022, NAICS 238 (specialty trade contractors) (Census SUSB). Licensing from state board and statute; verify current requirements before operating.
National contractor-services revenue is anchored to definition-matched public figures: roofing ~$70B (US Census 2022 Economic Census, NAICS 238160 employer receipts), HVAC services ~$24B (industry research; residential is the larger share in the US), and commercial janitorial ~$60B (a commercial-only slice of the ~$80B US janitorial total). Each national total is allocated to states by that state's relative share of housing (residential) and commercial activity (commercial), then residential vs commercial is split by the national-average share for the trade. Competitor counts are US Census SUSB employer firms by revenue tier (receipt-size tables), redistributed to states by each state's relative share. This is directional market sizing; treat the numbers as estimates and read residential/commercial as an assumed split, not a measured one.
Directional market sizing, not an independent per-state survey. National totals are anchored to definition-matched published figures (contractor-services revenue, not materials markets); the state distribution is a modeled share and residential vs commercial is applied as a national-average split, not measured per state. Figures are estimates, ranges where noted.
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